UVa football 2014: PREDICTION TIME

Does this really even need an introduction?

We know the team. The talent that could prevail but likely won't. At least that's what history tells us.

Here are my picks.

Saturday, August 30: vs. UCLA

I feel stupid even writing this one. Preseason No. 7 by USA Today. No. 5 by Sports Illustrated. Get ready for another Oregon-like drubbing.

These guys are just too good. We have decent ACC-level talent. They have national-title-contender-level talent.

I expect Brett Hundley to have a field day against us.

Prediction: UCLA 45, Virginia 17

Saturday, September 6: vs. Richmond

This prediction is just as easy as the last one; except this time, the game is clearly in our favor.

Listen, as bad as we were last season, we are still leaps and bounds above FCS programs like Richmond. 

Before the VMI game last season, I would hear some people say, "I don't know, we're pretty bad. VMI could have a shot."

NO! Richmond, unlike VMI, is a respectable FCS program. But they cannot touch ACC football.

Prediction: Virginia 42, Richmond 13

Saturday, September 13: vs. Louisville

I know Teddy Bridgewater is gone. I know Charlie Strong is gone. But Louisville is still a force to reckon with.

New head coach Bobby Petrino is a great football coach (whether be is a great person is a better question). He lead Western Kentucky to a 8-4 record last season after he left with Arkansas.

Furthermore, Louisville still has NFL caliber talent. Look no further than WR DeVante Parker (although he'll miss the game with a foot injury). Also see their defense, which was second in the country in points allowed (12.2!).

But it'll be our third straight home game, while it will be the Cardinals's first on the road. The intangibles will be in our favor.

Plus, the Louisville defense was so good because of their defensive line. But three of last year's starters are now gone, including AAC player of the year Marcus Smith.

Sometimes you lose games you shouldn't lose (we're all too familiar with this one). But sometimes you win games you shouldn't necessarily win. I think this can be one of those wins.

Call me crazy, but we should be hitting our stride three weeks into the season. I think we pull the upset in a low scoring affair.

Prediction: Virginia 20, Louisville 17

Saturday, September 20: at BYU

But as soon as the optimism in predictions began, it ended. I don't like anything about our matchup against BYU.

For the sake of these predictions, let's take history into account. UVa has never performed well the week after pulling an upset. If they were to beat Louisville, there's no way we prevail over BYU.

But even if we isolate this game, I don't like our chances. First off, it's on the road -- across the country. Mike London has only won the opening road game once in his tenure in Charlottesville. That was against Indiana in 2011. And we probably shouldn't even have won that game.

Add in the fact that QB Taysom Hill passed for nearly 3,000 yards last season while also adding over 1,300 on the ground, and you have to be a little frightened. Hill is a preseason Heisman hopeful for a reason.

The Cougar defense will take a step back with the loss of Kyle Van Noy, but not far enough that we can keep up with their offense.

Prediction: BYU 27, Virginia 16

Saturday, September 27: vs. Kent State

I could see some lower level teams giving us some trouble. But not Mid-American Conference foe Kent State. 

The Golden Flashes finished 4-8 last season. Their wins came against Liberty, Western Michigan, Miami (Oh.) and Ohio. 

Now, we certainly cannot overlook Kent State. They only lost to Ball State by three. We lost to them by 21.

But since it's our fourth home game in our first five contests, I still have to give us the edge.

Prediction: Virginia 31, Kent State 20

**Note: If we lose this game, Mike London ought to be fired before he leaves the stadium. It won't be the easiest win, but a loss here is absolutely unacceptable.

Saturday, October 4: vs. Pittsburgh

I'm stuck on this one. I really am.

In one sense, I see Pittsburgh as an extremely young team. Nine of their projected starters are sophomores. Plus they're losing QB Tom Savage and WR Devin Smith on offense and DT Aaron Donald on defense.

But then I see a trap game that Virginia just might lose. Pitt is nothing special, but neither are we. They have had some solid recruiting classes and are certainly a team on the rise.

My biggest concern is their opening schedule. Their first five games before us are against Delaware, Boston College, FIU, Iowa, and Akron. Not exactly the toughest stretch.

I don't know if I should look at this and see a confident team that's hungry for a slightly more legitimate win or a team that's just not ready for more physical competition? Right now, I'm leaning towards the latter.

My brain says to mark us down for a loss. But there's something deep down inside me that's saying (in Lee Corso's voice), "Not so fast!"

Maybe it's just preseason optimism, but I'm going with the Cavaliers!

Prediction: Virginia 17, Pitt 14

Saturday, October 18: at Duke

Remember the days when Duke was an afterthought? When Duke was the equivalent of a Richmond? An easy win?

Those memories are starting to fade away for me too.

I don't know what it is about the Blue Devils, but we just can't figure them out. I thought we finally had them last season, jumping out to a 22-0 lead. 

But then Duke scored 35 unanswered. That's why Scott Stadium is half empty.

Enough complaining, though. As much as I hate to admit it, Duke was actually pretty good last season; a 10-4 record plus an appearance in the ACC Championship game isn't too shabby.

David Cutcliffe -- who trained both Peyton and Eli Manning -- is a remarkable coach. And his spread offense has always given Virginia fits.

While the Blue Devil defense is nothing to call home about, the offense is efficient and can be explosive. The Duke troubles continue.

Prediction: Duke 31, Virginia 24

Saturday, October 25: vs. North Carolina

Again with the spread offenses. We just can't handle them. I don't know why, but if you just spread our defense out and throw the bubble screen, you'll pick up 5-10 yards every time. It's that simple.

That's UNC secret formula to beating Virginia. They've done it now four consecutive years. Let me rephrase that: Mike London has never beat UNC. The last time we beat the Tar Heels in 2009, Al Groh was still patrolling the sidelines.

UNC is No. 23 in the preseason AP poll. After losing five of their first six games to start 2013, they won six of their last seven (only loss to Duke) to finish the season. 

We might be able to attack UNC's 4-2-5 defense with our rushing attack. But against a spread offense, I believe our defense will give up too many points for the young offense to keep pace.

Prediction: North Carolina 34, Virginia 20

Saturday, November 1: at Georgia Tech

If this game was in Charlottesville, I'd be inclined to give us the edge. But it's not. It's in Atlanta, which means I'm picking the Jackets. 

The best way to stop Georgia Tech's triple option is with a dominant defensive line. The Yellow Jackets finished 7-6 last season, and every loss was to a team that was more physical at the line of scrimmage -- Virginia Tech, Miami, BYU, Clemson, Georgia, and Ole Miss.

I think we have the defensive line to really control the Georgia Tech rushing attack. Plus with a year under our belt's in Jon Tenuta's system, I don't think we have the same mental errors that plagued us last season when we fell 35-25.

Still, the game is in Atlanta. And it's a proven fact that this team just doesn't travel well. Especially the offense.

A physical, swarming defense will give us a chance, but I just can't see us winning on the road.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 21, Virginia 16

Saturday, November 8: at Florida State

Just like UCLA in the opener, I question why I even give an explanation.

FSU is ranked No. 1 in every preseason poll out there. They have the physical defense (1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game) and the explosive offense (2nd in scoring offense at 51.6 points per game).

And even though I still make fun of Famous Jameis for snatching a few unpaid-for crab legs, he won the Heisman Trophy for a reason. He was the best player in football.

Let's just try to keep within 50 points.

Prediction: Florida State 54, Virginia 10

Saturday, November 22: vs. Miami

So at this point, we're 4-6. Two wins away from bowl eligibility. But a fifth straight loss would again make this season a disappointment. And it also puts London into about the hottest seat you can imagine.

But if we mak it this far, I think we rally. The players love Mike London, and they will put it all on the line.

It also doesn't hurt that London is 3-1 against Miami. And if you read my observations from last season's 45-26 loss to Miami, hopefully you'll agree that we should have won that game. Miami scored 28 points off of four turnovers. There's you're difference.

I don't understand it, but I'll go with it. Cavs in the upset!

Prediction: Virginia 34, Miami 28

Friday, November 28: at Virginia Tech

So it all comes down to this. Virginia vs. Virginia Tech. The Commonwealth Cup will decide whether we can determine our season successful on two different levels -- bowl eligibility and and beating Tech.

These past two seasons, we've narrowed the gap between the programs. Or rather, Tech has simply gotten worse.

Regardless, we had every opportunity to win in Blacksburg two years ago. And last season's loss was just the product of our anemic offense. Eli Harold and the defense played their hearts out.

If there's a year to beat the Hokies, it's 2014. Tech's defense will be dominant, as usual. But that's about all that is guaranteed for the Hokies as they enter the season.

The quarterback battle is ongoing, which is never a good sign. They lack an elite running back (when Virginia Tech has been good this past decade, they've always had an elite-level running back). And there offensive line is as porous as ours (okay, maybe not that bad, but you get the point).

This isn't the same Tech program that has sent the Hoos from Hooville crying Boo-Hoo for 10 consecutive years. And upsets can happen any weekend -- that's the beauty of college sports.

I say we beat Tech (finally!) and go bowling!

Prediction: Virginia 19, Virginia Tech 13

Tuesday, December 30: Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee

This is as good of a guess as I can give. If we're at an even 6-6, the Music City Bowl is a likely scenario. And Tennessee is a midlevel SEC team. They'll reach six or seven wins I assume. 

So why not? Close enough for me!

Unfortunately, I just can't pick us against any SEC team. The strength of Virginia in 2014 will be the defensive front seven. And even if we are considered good in the ACC, SEC football is just on a different level. Their offensive line will be able to handle us.

And on offense, our o-line will falter under that SEC speed and athleticism. 

But 6-7 ain't too shabby.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Virginia 14

Final Thoughts...

When I started this post, I did not expect to have us bowl eligible. Even though I made these predictions, I still have a tough time buying them.

Richmond and Kent State should be wins. But other than that, every other pick is an upset. 

Are we really going to start out 4-2 with wins against Louisville and Pitt? Will we really lose four straight before upsetting Miami and Virginia Tech?

Honestly, it doesn't seem likely. Maybe it's just preseason optimism.

Point being: it's tough to find six wins on the schedule. We could just as easily be 3-9 or 2-10. That means London and co. are out.

But what I keep trying remind myself is this: we will be better in 2014. How much remains to be determined. But we will be better.

The defense will be good. It's Tenuta's system, so we'll still give up big plays and hence more points than we'd like. But whether it be with dominance at the line of scrimmage or forcing turnovers, the defense should keep us in most games. At least into the third quarter.

On offense, Lambert will outperform Watford's 2013 season. There's no where to go but up. The running backs are a deep group, and the emergence of some young guys at receiver has me hopeful.

The offensive line is the real question mark. Likely, they won't improve from 2013. But if everyone around them improves, that might be good enough for six wins.

At the end of the day, these picks are what they are -- educated guesses. I feel as if hope might have trumped rational reasoning on a few picks. But what the heck -- it's College Football!!! ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!

And if the season goes like this, I think the Wahoo Faithful will be pleasantly satisfied.

To love or to hate? UVa football edition

Today's number is -- 2. That's how many bowl games we've been to since the 2005 season. The Gator Bowl in 2007 (9-4 season record) and the Chick-fil-a Bowl in 2011 (8-5 season record).

We haven't won a bowl game since then QB Marques Hagans played the game of his career to lead us back against Minnesota in the Music City Bowl in 2005. To put this in perspective, I had just turned 11.

Six wins. That's the goal. A bowl game.

Obviously, that's much easier said than done. Especially for a team that barely squeaked out two wins last season. TWO WINS! That's still tough to swallow.

On paper, we seem to have the talent to reach the respectably-okay-threshold that is six wins.

But also on paper is a 12 game schedule that's no walk in the park. In fact -- with the exception of the SEC schedules -- it's one of the toughest in the nation.

So which will it be? Will the talent on our roster finally gel, carrying us to a bowl game and a sixth season with Mike London at the helm? Or will Jon Oliver's overaggressive scheduling tear the team down even further?

I'll preview the season game by game in the coming days. But for now, forget the schedule. How does this team come together? What will help us and what will hurt us?

What is there to love? And what is there to hate?

Love...

• Defensive Continuity

The defense returns nine of last season's 11 starters. Both losses were on the defensive line -- DT Brent Urban was drafted in the fourth round by the Ravens (Note: he has since torn his ACL in training camp) and LDE Jake Snyder was signed as an undrafted free-agent by the Vikings. 

Still, neither of these losses will hurt too much. Urban was disruptive when on the field, but his successors aren't too shabby themselves. Five-star freshman Andrew Brown -- the high school national Gatorade player of the year -- and former four-star sophomore Donte Wilkins will do just fine in the middle.

Replacing Snyder will be former four-star junior Mike Moore -- who was one of the most improved players on the team in spring ball. Preseason All-ACC selections Eli Harold and David Dean will man the other two spots on the defensive line.

The return of the Orange Crush defense?

At linebacker, Henry Coley, Daquan Romero, and Max Valles will return. Valles will be a more polished pass rusher, while Coley looked like a first-team All-ACC performer in spring ball. 

And in the back end, we of course have All-American safety Anthony Harris returning from his nation-leading eight-interception season. Add Maurice Canady, Demetrious Nicholson, Drequan Hoskey, and Branden Phelps, and you've got one of the better corner groups in the country. And don't forget about five-star safety Quin Blanding -- who will start at free safety in place of Phelps, who is a natural cornerback.

You have to be excited about this group's potential. Before injuries took their toll on the unit last season, this group was one of the best in the country. The Pitt game was utter domination. And this year, I think we have the depth to still be competitive when the injury bug hits.

• Stable of Running Backs

In Kevin Parks, we have the only returning 1,000-yard rusher in the ACC. Parks was a machine last season. Not only did he pick up 4.5 yards a pop, but he was also second on the team with 38 receptions. 

Then you have Khalek Shepherd, who can do it all -- run, catch, and return. He's had some big play highlights over his career, such as his TD against Oregon last season and his swing pass he took to the house against LA Tech in 2012.

More celebrations like these, please.

Then enter former five-star running back Taquan "Smoke" Mizzell. After an injury plagued 2013, he's now apparently one of the top playmakers in training camp.

And don't sleep on Daniel Hamm. He ran very well against VMI, and has looked good in highlight videos on vasp.tv. 

You can read my running back preview for more thoughts/details, but this is a very, very deep group.

• Young Potential at Wide Receiver

I know we're all tired of reading the word "potential". That's all we've talked about under Mike London's tenure. 

Year after year our top-30 recruiting class has the "potential" to change the direction of the program. And year after year we're disappointed that these guys didn't pan out and/or didn't improve our record.

But this receiving core is young. Key contributors will be Keeon Johnson (sophomore), Kyle Dockins (RS sophomore), Andre Levrone (RS freshman), and possibly even Jamil Kamara and Doni Dowling (both true freshman). 

These guys could combine to form one hell of a group. Likely, that won't happen until 2015 (if it ever does...), but you have to be excited about the future at this position.

**Note: If you haven't read my WR preview (which you should), I think Levrone could be a huge breakout guy for us. In my opinion, he was the best receiver out there in spring practice.

Help me sound smart, Levrone!

***Note: Reports out of spring practice suggest that Kamara and Dowling could be consistent contributors to this offense. In the scrimmage yesterday (Wednesday, August 13), Dowling hauled in three touchdowns while Kamara also added a score.

• New Quarterback

Ahh... the constant dilemma for UVa football. Death, taxes, and quarterback questions. Welcome to Charlottesville, folks.

But after David Watford's less than memorable, downright embarrassing, whirlwind of a season, we now have a shimmer of hope. Enter Greyson Lambert.

Of course there're questions. Why couldn't he beat out Watford last season? Why does he keep throwing interceptions (two in spring game, many more in training camp highlights)?

Lead us to the promise land.

But with that skepticism comes flashes of competence. For example: Recruited by Alabama. Perfect height/weight measurables. Strong arm. Captain vote. Some nice strikes in training camp.

Remember, there's no guarantee Lambert's the chosen one. Remember Phillip Sims?

But Lambert is all we've got. So you bet your ass wahoo nation is all behind the Georgia native.

He can be the guy we've been waiting for.

Hate...

• Offensive Line Shuffle

Let's not kid ourselves here, though. The offense will struggle. And it won't necessarily be because of the skill positions.

Rather, it's due to the big-uglies up front. And on paper, it's not just going to be their large frames that are considered "ugly". Their play might draw a similar nickname as well.

With the loss of projected left tackle Jay Whitmire for most (if not all) of the season, we're running even thinner. Add in that Morgan Moses and Luke Bowanko were lost to the NFL and we've got ourselves five big question marks.

Currently, we have guards playing tackle (Conner Davis). Barely enough bodies to go two-deep. Possibly three-guys starting without a previous start. The concerns go on and on.

You can read my offensive line preview for more specifics, but the unit certainly is not inspiring any confidence.

I'd put the over/under at 4.5 different starting offensive line combinations. That's not exactly the continuity -- or talent, for that matter -- you hope for on your offensive line.

• No Tight End

With Jake McGee's departure, we have four tight ends on the roster. Oh, and one of them -- Mario Nixon -- has been lost to injury for the season. 

Senior Zachary Swanson is the only one of the bunch that has recorded more than one reception. He's also the only UVa tight end to actually gain a yard on a reception.

The other tight ends are junior Rob Burns -- a converted defensive end -- and true freshman Evan Butts. Not exactly the most inspiring group.

Swanson has no help. He doesn't look too happy here...

Swanson is a fine player. He's a good blocker that also has underrated hands (19 receptions for 173 yards last season). But he's the only guy. If he get's injured, we're screwed. And let's not even think about next season after Swanson leaves. Talk about a weak position.

What scares me the most is that the tight ends saw a good deal of targets last season. Now who knows if that was just Fairchild's offense or the fact that Watford wouldn't throw it more than five yards downfield.

Whatever the case was, Lambert -- a first year starter -- will likely often look for the big-bodied safety blankets. The lack of talent here could stunt Lambert's development.

• Inexperience on Offense

Notice a theme here? Most of the reasons to hate our team are due to the overall inexperience on offense. Other than Kevin Parks, can you think of another player who has had a significant impact on this unit for more than a year? I sure can't.

The offensive line might have a senior or two on it (honestly, who knows?). But other than that, where are the guys that will step up and be the leaders on this unit?

Yes, Kevin Parks is a captain, but he can't lead every position. Darius Jennings and Miles Gooch are seniors at receiver, but are they really the guys that underclassmen strive to imitate? I doubt it. Zach Swanson is a senior at tight end, but does he really even have anybody to lead?

I know Greyson Lambert is a captain, but we cannot forget that he's still a sophomore. He's been in the program for 3.5 years, but a sophomore isn't a junior or senior.

Remember, he's only a sophomore.

Parks is the only guy on offense that had a role in the Chick-fil-a bowl season. He's the only guy that can truly say that he's "been-there-done-that".

The starting receivers are likely to be sophomores (Johnson, Dockins). Probably three offensive linemen between Eric Smith, Tetlow/Matteo, Doull, and Sadiq will be sophomores. Not to mention our quarterback.

We have some hope since two of our four captains are offensive players. But it still looks like this unit will experience some serious trial-by-fire.

• Injuries

Injuries are just part of football. You can only complain so much. 

Injuries killed our defense last season, but we should have had better depth to fill those roles. Anybody who says their team stunk because of injuries simply doesn't know enough about football (unless you're Georgia, who lost basically every contributor on offense last season. I'm talking like three receivers, Todd Gurley for some time, and, sadly, even Aaron Murray late in the year).

So far in training camp, though, we've heard some tough injury news for the program. Andrew Brown and Demetrious Nicholson are still battling turf toe injuries. It's in question whether either will be 100% and able to play by August 30.

We need this guy back!

Add in Jay Whitmire and we've got ourselves potentially three starters that will be missing time when the season starts. Oh, and now Sadiq has a lower extremity injury.

Things could be a lot worse (ACL tears), but these injuries certainly are not ideal.

• Coaching Staff

Starting back in June, I began previewing the 2014 football team. And honestly, other than the offensive line and the tight ends, we have some pretty damn good talent. Enough talent to compete at a high level. Or so you would think.

So with all this talent, why is most of wahoo nation so down on this year's squad? Why are ticket sales at a record low? Why can't we win games?

The answer is simple -- the coaching staff. That includes Mike London as well as his assistants.

Let's start with the head coach. Mike London is a great man and an even better representative of the University. He fulfills all speaking engagements. He is very involved with student life on grounds. And he could not be more respectful to reporters, even when their questions primarily focus on his job security.

How long is his leash?

Furthermore, the players love him. Eli Harold chose UVa over Florida because he thought Mike London could be the father figure Harold never had. Harold's father left him when he was young. Talented, good-willed high school players choose Virginia because of Mike London. This cannot be overemphasized.

But at the same time, he has not produced results. Aside from 2011 when we won eight games, he has posted a single season record no better than 4-8. And in 2011, we beat Indiana, Idaho, and Florida State by a combined five points. Those games were toss-ups that we were fortunate enough to win. We could have just as easily been 5-7 that season.

At some points, London must win. 

And it's not just the losses -- it's the way we are losing. Clock mismanagement. Special team miscues. Questionable play calling. Lots of our losses come from coaching blunders.

Then we have the assistant coaching decisions. The special teams might have been the worst in the country under Anthony Poindexter. While Larry Lewis has improved the coverage units and muffed kick miscues, we still lack explosive returns.

The offense was pretty bad last season as well, although I will withhold judgment on Steve Fairchild until I see it operate with a different quarterback under center. After all, Fairchild did produce the first 1,000-yard UVa rusher in nearly a decade.

Will we see a revamped offense? It's up to these guys.

Even Jon Tenuta deserves some blame. I know injuries -- especially in the secondary -- hurt us last season. But the team needed to adjust and play to its strengths. Watching poor Tim Harris get torched by Sammy Watkins all game was just unfair to the freshman.

Oh yeah, and Tom O'Brien's presence did nothing of note other than contribute to run out our leading receiver.

In short, the coaching staff has failed on numerous levels. As the head man in charge, London obviously deserves the most heat.

Personally, I lost faith in this coaching staff after a blowout loss to Ball State. Plus, after cutting your win total in half for two consecutive years (from eight to four to two), I thought it was obvious a change at the top was needed.

But Craig Littlepage disagreed. Why? I'm not sure. But he did. And that's all that matters.

And even as preseason brings optimism to even the most pessimistic, the whole country knows London has only one more season to justify his head position.

But until he and his staff prove otherwise, I still consider them an impediment to the team's success.

Football Media Day Notes!

Twenty days. 

That's all that's left until our opening game (loss?) against preseason No. 7 UCLA. 

On Friday, our coaches and select players gathered in JPJ to discuss the upcoming season. There really weren't any surprise revelations during the event. Coaches ignored hot-seat questions, and instead focused on the returning talent. Players admitted they needed to play better in 2014.

These media days are just for the media. For writers to get new quotes for new stories. Vanilla answers all the way around.

Still, college football is less than three weeks away! Despite little reason for optimism, I'm still pretty damn excited!

So let's touch on a couple of the highlights from the press conferences.

• Quarterback Battle -- For the first time since London took over, I'm not talking about who will be the starting quarterback. That man is Greyson Lambert. Rather, I'm talking about who will take the No. 2 job. David Watford or Greyson Lambert? (I prefer Johns ... see QB preview from last week). Basically, the job is up in the air. No clarification was given, although it still seems the coaches want Watford to win. (Note: in highlights on vasp.tv, Watford has been the better of the two of late in training camp).

or 

• Quarterback Rotation? -- When asked how David Watford would fit into the offense, offense coordinator Steve Fairchild said Watford might have a few packages of his own. Mt response: ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Has London not learned his lesson? Since he took over in 2010, Mike London at some point in the season has employed some sort of QB rotation. AND IT NEVER WORKED. Watford has lost his job as the starting QB. Don't screw up Lambert by inserting Mr. overthrow-interception-or-scramble-to-the-side-for-a-loss for a series.

Watford had his chance. Please, no more.

• Running Back Depth -- It's no secret we have a stable of good backs (check out the RB preview from last month). Between Parks, Shepherd, Smoke, and Hamm, we have four quality runners that all want touches. Sadly for Hamm, as a walk-on, he'll get the fewest attempts. That leaves Parks, Shepherd, and Smoke. Parks will be the go-to guy, but coaches have acknowledged Smoke will have an increased role (probably the 3rd-down back). So where does that leave Shepherd? He'll probably be the positionless, do-it-all back. He'll help in the return game (ugh...) and be split out wide on occasion (he caught a TD pass from the slot in these highlights from training camp). Still, Shepherd seems to be the odd-man out.

Coaches like Shepherd, but are there enough touches to go around?

• Eli Harold is Bigger -- Eli Harold has gained 20 pounds from last season, and is now up to 248. That's big (pun intended) for our defense. Harold can be a dynamic pass rusher, but his lack of size has always created problems in the run game. With that extra bulk, Harold will hold up better against the run and should only improve his pass-rushing finesse. And as a side note, Max Valles has also gained weight (no specifics here). Now we'll have two bigger end rushers in our nickel package.
• Offensive Line Shuffle -- Our oline play was shaky last season. And then we lost two starters to the NFL. This group is going to struggle. The biggest problem is we have no clue who our starting five will be. In my oline preview, I predicted the starting five, from left to right, would be the following: Smith, Davis, Tetlow, Burbank, and Olanrewaju. So far, this group has not practiced together. Eric Smith has only played the right side, while Conner Davis has seen time at both tackle spots. Ryan Doull has seen time with the first unit at LG, while Jackson Matteo has also taken first-team reps at center. Through a week of camp, there has been a new starting five every day. It's safe to say we'll have no idea what this group will look like until August 30. (Note: they want to pick a starting five by two weeks before the opener).

Is this guard our LT?

• Secondary Switch Up -- With Demetrious Nicholson still battling his turf toe injury (more on that in a second), the starting four has flip-flopped. Our first team corners are Canady and Phelps, while the first team safeties are Anthony Harris and Quin Blanding. Phelps, who played safety each of the past two seasons, is now at his more natural position (as London admitted). Blanding has been impressive from what I hear. Even when Nicholson comes back, I see no reason to remove Blanding from the starting lineup. He's a top-10 recruit -- let him play. I'm surprised Hoskey's name didn't come up, but he'll be the starting nickelback covering the slot.

Finally. The cornerback is playing...cornerback.

• Starting Wide Receivers Still Unknown -- We came into camp with little idea of who our starting receivers would be. One week hasn't been enough to solve the puzzle. Expect Keeon Johnson to be the starting X-receiver, but outside of that, all is a mystery. Coach Hagans advised his players to not say a word about any possible lineup. London brought up Dockins, Severin, and Gooch as players that have impressed (they have a combined 17 career receptions...). Darius Jennings impressed in the spring, but there haven't been any recent reports on the senior. And freshmen Jamil Kamara and Doni Dowling are both expected to see time this season. Shouldn't at least one of them redshirt? Are our receivers that bad or are the first-years that good? I'm not sure even the coaching staff knows at this point.

Johnson...and who else?

• Injuries -- Unfortunately, injuries are a part of any sport. Especially collegiate football. So far, the biggest loss has been projected LT Jay Whitmire, who will miss most -- if not all -- of the season with a bad back. This loss has been part of the reason for the uncertainty along the offensive line. Prized recruit Andrew Brown -- along with Nicholson -- is still recovering from a lingering turf-toe injury. Both of these guys need to be on the field for the defense to succeed. A good pass-rush and secondary make a good defense. It's that simple. And the underachieving Dominique Terrell might or might not take a medical redshirt this season. Ultimately, it matters little. He had his chance. It's time to give that same opportunity to others.

I'm sure there are more nuggets, but those are the ones that stood out to me.

Future Posts -- I'm not sure how everything will shake out, but I know I'll have at least two detailed posts before football season begins. First will be a post outlining reasons for optimism and reasons for pessimism for the 2014 football team. Then probably the week before the season, I'll give my predictions for each game in 2014. I'll update y'all on Twitter in the coming days.

WAHOO BALL!

Wahoo Nation is now Wahoo Ball!!

Alright, let me try to make this as simple as possible. This blog -- which was formerly "Wahoo Nation" -- has now changed its name to "Wahoo Ball". 

This change means the website's URL has changed from "wahoonation.blogspot.com" to "http://wahooball.blogspot.com/".

Furthermore, Wahoo Nation's twitter page (@WahooNation) has now changed to Wahoo Ball (@Wahoo_Ball).

The switch can be explained for one reason -- publicity. In short, Wahoo Nation was simply too broad of a name. Every team refers to themselves as "Insert mascot name here" Nation. See "Redskins Nation", "Gator Nation", or even "Hokie Nation".

I loved Wahoo Nation as a name. It just had a good ring to it. Plus, it looked good on the screen.

However, because the phrase "Wahoo Nation" is used so frequently by sports journalists to refer to the UVa fan base, the search of "Wahoo Nation" on Google produces a whole lot of search results. It wasn't until several pages later until this "Wahoo Nation" blog was shown.

Basically, it was more difficult for people to find this blog -- they weren't having much serendipity. 

So, I chose a more unique name. After debating between the likes of "Wahoo Orange" and "Wahoo House", I ultimately chose "Wahoo Ball". 

I feel this name is more unique than "Wahoo Nation". Plus, it's only real competition on search pages is a softball league. And let me make this clear -- Wahoo Ball is in no way affiliated with any amateur softball league. We are all about UVA SPORTS!!

I realize that it will take time for the current readers to adjust to the new website URL and Twitter page. Hopefully y'all will get this new page ingrained in your head soon enough. 

The hope, though, is this new name will bring in even more readers to blog. It might take a while -- I'm kind of messing up my brand name here. 

But my goal when I started this blog was to provide the best UVa sports coverage of my ability to whoever is willing to read it. Now, I feel that all who might desire to read this UVa content should be able to find it. This fact gives me a peace of mind.

Now also let me add that this name change in no way will affect the content produced on this blog. I (and for now at least, I alone) will continue to post the same content -- both on the blog and the Twitter account -- that you are used to reading. All UVA!

So in conclusion, thank you for your patience with the changing site. I apologize for giving basically no warning about the switch. But hopefully the result is a better blog for all!

And last but not least, Go Hoos!

Quarterback play will determine our fate

Well, here we are. This position preview series has been going for nearly two months. We have delved into our apparent strengths (secondary, linebackers, defensive line, and running backs) as well as our pretty obvious weaknesses (special teams, wide receivers, tight ends, and offensive line).

Now, it's time for the finale -- QUARTERBACKS. As we all should know, a quarterback can make or break a team. A good one elevates the play of those around him, while the bad ones make up for others' weaknesses.

Take Tom Brady. If you put that cast of receivers last season with basically any other quarterback, the offense -- and team -- is doomed. I mean, Julian Edelman was their No. 1 receiver! Now take the Packers. With Aaron Rodgers, they're one of the best teams in the league. Then when he went down with a broken collarbone, the team collapsed and just barely snuck into the playoffs.

I know these are NFL examples, but the same principles apply at the college level as well. We can even look at ourselves. After re-watching the Miami game (check out my notes here), I wholeheartedly believe we win that game with basically any DI quarterback -- except David Watford.

Watford's play was flat out embarrassing last season. The saddest part was -- we had reason to believe that he could succeed. While he was nothing special during his true freshman season, the thought was he had matured during his redshirted second year. Now entering his third season as a redshirt sophomore, Watford was anointed by Marines as the team's best leader. The coaches were praising his zip on the ball as well as his elusiveness in the pocket.

But not all transpired as we hoped. Yes, Watford could throw the ball on a rope. But he averaged like 3-yards per attempt! When he did throw it downfield, if it wasn't sailing over a receiver's head, then it was into the hands of a defender. And don't even get me started about his legs. The only time we saw him run was after he threw a pick and he was chasing down the ball carrier.

Let's break down Watford's 2013 numbers: 208 rushing yards (2.00 yards per carry); completion percentage of 57; only 5.16 yards per completion; need I continue?

A change needed to be made. Neither the program as a whole nor Mike London in particular could again stake their reputation on the Hampton signal caller.

So as no surprise to anyone who watched a spring practice, the Jesup, Georgia southpaw Greyson Lambert was given the reins to the offense. He was the clear choice -- make no mistake about it. But it was not an easy choice. By benching Watford, London has admitted he failed, again, at the quarterback position. From Rocco to Sims and now Watford, something tumultuous has always gone wrong.

Can Lambert break the trend? London certainly hopes so. If not, London's out -- it's that simple. You can add up win totals all you want, but everyone in the athletics office wants to believe in London, and they have given and will continue to give London every opportunity to save himself. Even if we manage just four or five wins in 2014, if Lambert shows progress, I bet London stays.

No pressure, Greyson. You only have the jobs of the entire staff on your shoulders.

Quarterback likely starter: Greyson Lambert

For the sake of uniformity, I am keeping "likely starter" in the title. But Lambert is the guy. No if's, and's, or but's. Except for an unforeseen injury, No. 11 will take the first snap for the orange and blue against UCLA.

While Lambert is still very much an unknown, he at least has pedigree on his side. He was a four-star recruit by Scout -- the No. 7 QB recruit in the class of 2012. While Rivals didn't think so much of Lambert (three-stars), big schools and their scouts were still very impressed. He had offers from Alabama, Georgia, Miami, Clemson, South Carolina, and many, many more schools. Thankfully, he chose the Cavaliers.

Still, potential means nothing until it produces results. That's what Lambert will have to do in 2014.

Lambert's 2014 season was a bit of a roller coaster -- a roller coaster that in no way predicts future success or failure. He appeared in seven games -- all in mop-up duty except for Virginia Tech. But let's be honest -- even though we were down just 10 points when Lambert entered the Tech game, he had no chance to succeed. The experience was valuable, but you simply cannot take anything away-- good or bad -- from garbage time snaps.

While his play was shaky last season, there was no doubt Lambert was the best quarterback on the field in 2014 spring ball. While he did throw two interceptions in the spring game, you could still tell he was the guy. He stood strong in the pocket and showed off his poise and arm talent. My favorite play of the day was the back shoulder throw to Kyle Dockins for a touchdown. Lambert showed great touch and great accuracy -- neither of which Watford has ever displayed.

And as if there was any doubt Lambert was the man, his nod for captain sealed the coffin shut for Watford. Sophomore's rarely get elected captain. So when one does -- and it's your quarterback of all positions -- the man's gonna start. The vote puts added pressure on Lambert, but it also should give him a huge confidence boost.

In Lambert the team trusts.

Depth

First, let's start with the obvious -- David Watford.

We know all too much about the redshirt junior. His play was sporadic to say the least when he spelled Michael Rocco in 2011. We thought he would improve; he didn't.

Yes, obviously we would have liked a better result from Watford, but I want to be careful to not put too much blame on the man for our season. Ultimately, the coaching staff expected him to improve. Well, he did not. And that's okay. Not every player is going to develop -- it's a sad truth.

The coaching staff needs to know when players have reached their peak. Unless Lambert was truly terrible in practice last season, Watford should have been benched. I know the staff was being careful about flopping quarterbacks again. They wanted to show Watford that he was their guy. But at some point London has to do the best thing for the team and make a switch. You could see the hints at the end of the season -- London said Lambert would play against Virginia Tech. But it was too little to late.

Still, in terms of a back-up QB, Watford has everything you want. He's started 12 games in his career -- that's rare for a back-up at any position. Also, Watford has legs (in terms of straight-line speed, there are few that can hang with Watford). When a back-up QB can come in and pose a threat in the run game, it adds a whole other dimension to the offense that the defense isn't prepared for (see Mike Vick for the Eagles or even Tarvaris Jackson for the Vikings way back when).

So in short, I don't want Watford starting, and we all know why. Inaccurate, hesitant, etc., etc. But if Lambert goes down, Watford should be able to carry the offense for the rest of the game or however long it may take.

But for me at least, there is still a conundrum at the back-up quarterback position. Watford wasn't given sole possession of the job on the post spring depth chart. No, he's sharing it with an "or" with rising sophomore Matt Johns.

Now to most this may seem silly. Johns has only actually taken snaps at QB in one game -- VMI. And he didn't even attempt a pass. So why would you want him over Watford as Lambert's back-up? For me, it's because he played better in spring practices. It's that simple.

The former three star product clearly outperformed Watford in the practices I attended. At least to me, it wasn't even close. It was clear that Watford has more arm strength and "intangibles" (put whatever weight you want on those), but Johns moved the offense better than Watford. Johns did nothing special -- he mostly was hitting check-down guys (although he had a nice ball that sailed 50 or so yards on a deep touchdown to Darius Jennings in one practice). But Johns just had better pocket presence; he stands upright and keeps his eyes downfield. Watford has always seemed to keep moving backwards in the pocket, affecting his accuracy and confidence.

So the question becomes this: do you want your back-up QB to be the athletic guy with way more experience, or do you want him to be the guy that's a more polished passer? Personally, I'll take the latter. If Johns would throw a good ball here and there but seemed rattled in the pocket, then I would take Watford all day. But Johns just had a certain calmness -- perhaps even more so than Lambert.

Ultimately, I see Watford winning the No. 2 job for one simple reason -- he's from Hampton, Va, the same area where London recruits so heavily. Johns is from Pennsylvania, so London has fewer connections to maintain. It sounds artificial, but I would be shocked if Watford isn't the No. 2 guy. Even though Johns outperformed him in spring ball.

Fourth on the post-spring depth chart is redshirt freshman Brendan Marshall. The former three star prospect adds good depth at the position, but he has yet to show much at practice. To be honest, I don't even remember noticing him in one practice I attended. And I'm 99% sure he didn't even take a snap in the spring game.

I read this piece on Streaking the Lawn the other day endorsing Marshall's status as a future potential starter. Basically the article says do not overlook the Maryland product. But while Marshall does have ideal size (6'6"; 230 pounds) and a winning pedigree at Our Lady of Good Counsel (as the article pointed out), I just don't ever see Marshall taking meaningful snaps.

When you break it down by year, it just seems very, very unlikely. Lambert is only a sophomore, so if he succeeds, we have a three-year starter. If he doesn't, Johns is a sophomore as well, and he's better thought of than Marshall -- and deservedly so. So once Lambert and Johns are gone, Marshall is a senior. But then we have highly touted Corwin "Turtle" Cutler who will have had three years to develop. And don't forget about Nick Johns, our class of 2015 QB recruit.

Sorry Brendan, but I have a tough time buying Streaking the Lawn's endorsement.

So that takes us to Corwin Cuter aka Turtle. Cutler was a huge get for us -- he was a four-star recruit by ESPN and the No. 21 QB in the class of 2013. Scout gave him three stars.

Cutler was supposed to enroll last season, but a devastating knee injury that involved tears to his ACL, PLC, LCL, and meniscus in his left knee forced him to change his plans. He played last season at Fork Union and now is supposedly full go about two years after the catastrophic injury.

There has been a lot of hype surrounding the Virginia Beach native for quite some time, but I want to be quick to curtail the optimism that Cutler is a program saving type of player. Yes, he was a big recruit from a local area. But other than that, why are we drinking the Kool-Aid? Cutler has yet to play a collegiate snap. And he's yet to play a snap of truly meaningful football since his knee injury.

I'm not bashing the kid -- he could turnout to be pretty damn good. But let's calm down for at least a year or two. Turtle will redshirt 2014 (at least he better... I'm talking to you Mike London). If Lambert plays well, then Cutler might not even compete for the starting gig until 2017 -- Turtle's junior season.

So if Lambert struggles, perhaps there's another open competition at QB next season in which Cutler will participate. But if Lambert shows decent progress, we might be waiting another two years for our taste of Turtle.

So with that, we have five scholarship quarterbacks. Walk-on QB's Joe Spaziani (Fr.) and Andrew Mackay (RS Fr.) are on the roster, but unless a situation like what happened at Maryland a few years back goes down (all scholarship QB's were lost for the season to injury so a converted linebacker moved bacl to QB), these guys will never play.

Conclusion

Mike London is going on his fifth season in Charlottesville. So this year will mark the fifth season that our quarterback situation is still a question mark. This cannot be the case if you want to win games.

Remember last season when Mike London and offensive coordinator/QB coach Steve Fairchild went all in on David Watford early in summer camp? They were trying to settle the QB issue once and for all. I liked the idea of picking a guy early, but they chose the wrong guy.

At least that's what London hopes. If he just chose the wrong guy, then Lambert might be able to come in and not only take us to a bowl game, but also probably save London's head coaching career (if London fails in 2014, would anyone ever hire him again as a head coach?).

But of course, nothing's that simple. What if there is no guy on the roster that can lead our team? What if we simply don't have "the guy"? Or should I say: What if London never recruited "the guy"?

It's the question we're all wondering. After all, it will decide whether we muddle in the lower tier of the college football ranks or whether we can go bowling.

And all this falls on Greyson Lambert. We don't have the star power on offense where a running back or receiver can flat out burn a defense -- at least not yet (maybe Smoke in a year?). So if the offense -- and hence the team -- is going to succeed, it's because Lambert plays like an upper tier ACC quarterback.

Is this a lot to ask of a sophomore? Yes. Too much? We simply won't know until probably late October. The schedule isn't doing him any favors, but if anyone can handle the heat, it's Lambert. He's a captain. He has some game experience. He has all the physical tools.

It's really just a matter of whether or not it all comes together. And Mike London's guess is as good as mine on this one.

In Greyson we trust... At lest for 2014.