Hot N Cold

If you're like me, you're still pretty upset over the loss in Blacksburg last night.

Freezing my tail off surrounded by Hokies, there was definitely some jawing, but also some good football conversations. But at the end of the day, a loss is a loss. They had a good night. I did not.

Regardless, we could overanalyze that game and get mirror results of UVa football this past decade. I'm not going to do that.

Instead, I was looking back over some of my preseason previews and predictions this morning and some things caught my eye.

I pride myself on knowing UVa football like the back of my hand. Sometimes I was right, but just as often, I was wrong.

Where I was Right

1. Quin Blanding and Anthony Harris. Not that this was a tough one to figure out, but the duo was about as good as you can ask for. Especially Blanding, who probably only has two more seasons in Charlottesville remaining.
2. Linebackers. Not like this one was hard to decipher either with two seniors in Coley and Romero and a great pass rusher in Valles. Coley was great against the run and as a blitzer, but he was a weak spot in coverage -- he was often subbed out in the nickel package as the season progressed. I'm hoping he gets a shot in the NFL as a two-down linebacker.
3. Solid years by Eli Harold, Mike Moore, and David Dean. These guys were the major reason our run defense was so stout.
4. Tight end. Zach Swanson never stepped up, struggling with drops (he almost dropped his touchdown against Tech) and blocking. Rob Burns was non-existent. This is a huge area of concern for next season.
5. Offensive line shuffle. I didn't pick the right starting five, but I did say we would rotate a bunch of guys and generally struggle. Check.
6. Matt Johns. I technically should split my credit on this one since I did project him as the No. 3 guy, but I did say -- in the practices I attended -- that he did at times look better than Greyson Lambert. He also started several games. For a guy that had never thrown a pass before the UCLA game, I'll give myself a little pat on the back.
7. Preseason predictions. Believe it or not, I picked our first 11 games correctly (see here). Unfortunately, I had us beating Tech. I think we would have all preferred for me to go 12-for-12 here.

Where I was Wrong

1. I was higher on the corners coming into this season. Part of the underachieving performance was thanks to the injury of Nicholson, but Canady struggled in the second half of the season. And with Tim Harris and DreQuan Hoskey, you know you're getting two mediocre corners. I got a little too excited here back in the summer.
2. Andrew Brown -- I projected him as a starter. Not quite. Call it injuries, but he didn't lived up to his Gatorade High School player of the year award. Everyone says the talent is obvious, so hopefully with a full offseason, he can develop into the stud we were hoping for.
3. Returners. I had Dominique Terrell -- not Khalek Shepherd -- returning punts. I also projected Taquan Mizzell to have more return yards than Darius Jennings. I think to all of our surprises, Jennings had 677 kick-return yards with a 27.1 average. Not too shabby. (Smoke had 208 yards at 23.1 yards per pop).
4. Speaking of Mizzell, I expected him to be more explosive. He never really got out into space, and when he did, he read his blocks poorly. Even against Va. Tech on that 54-yard reception, I'm disappointed that the supposedly fastest guy on our team couldn't take it to the house. It cost us four points; it could have been the difference.
5. Wide Receiver. I doubt I'm alone on this, but with a combined 9 catches for 78 yards coming into the season, I did not expect neither Gooch nor Severin to emerge. Gooch provided a big target on the outside and in the redzone, while Severin -- about 20 pounds lighter -- proved his value from the slot. I also thought Kyle Dockins and Keeon Johnson would have breakout-type of years. I guess I picked the wrong duo.

All and all, not too bad. I just wish it would have translated to more than five wins.

Still, as always, Go Hoos. On to next year. (Maybe sixth time is the charm for London!)

It's time to back London

Let me address what's on everyone's minds -- Mike London's retention by athletic director Craig Littlepage.

As I made quite clear to my followers after the UNC loss, I was all in for firing London. About a month later, that still hasn't really changed.

I don't care that we've been competitive in basically every game (except Georgia Tech) because if we're competitive, then we should be winning. Fans are tired of losing shit.

Just look at the attendance figures. We averaged less than 40,000 fans at home games for the first time since 1994. NEWSFLASH: we only had ~45,000 seats in 1994.

Hell, even against Miami -- a game we thoroughly dominated, let me add -- we saw classic London mistakes. Settling for three field goals within the opponent's 10-yard line. Nearly a 12-men on the field penalty. Forgive me for sounding repetitive, but these are mistakes that just can't be made year after year. Not at a DI, power-five conference program that shells out the money we do.

However, I can't really argue with the logic by Littlepage and co. They were looking for one thing this season -- progress. In their eyes -- and after a lowly two win season, in most's eyes -- no one will argue that we progressed.

They looked at the schedule. As a post on Streaking the Lawn said, we might have been bowl eligible in October with Duke's schedule.

They looked at the recruiting. New coaches, especially from out of state, take a while to forge relationships with the instate guys. Keeping London eliminates this problem.

And they also looked at the UVa culture. As a student at the University, I can tell you we've had about as bad of a semester as you can. Between Hannah Graham's kidnapping and murder, the horrifyingly disturbing Rolling Stone article, and two additional suicides, many -- both students and the administration -- are struggling to cope with the continuous inflow of tragedies. And keeping a high character, active citizen in London is good for the Charlottesville community.

I tweeted earlier that I was disappointed, but not surprised by the decision. This is why.

We're probably in for another year of 5-7 or 6-6 football. Unfortunately, that's just the culture in Charlottesville. I mean, we've got students that don't go to football games and instead "study", go to a cappella concerts, etc., etc.

We just don't get excited over the sport. And with Mike London's track record, that's not changing next season.

But London is a good man, and his team loves him. In fact, I got really excited earlier today when Eli Harold tweeted, "#UVAFANS We do not need the negativity. We are trying to win a ball game."

We often forget that as we fans can rage about the coach on social media, his players are right there to hear it. It's like back in grade school when someone is talking bad about your parents right in front of you. It gets you pissed. And for Eli, that analogy is actually pretty close: after losing both parents, he chose UVa because he felt London could be the father figure he never had.

The administration backs him. The players back him. Now it's our turn.

Friday night could be the tide-turning win we need to claim the title as the best program in the state of Virginia.

First, we would end Tech's second-longest active FBS bowl streak at 21 games.

Second, we would beat Tech and actually be able to say objectively that we are a better team.

Third, we would go bowling, not only getting our fan base excited but also giving our guys an extra three weeks of practice.

Fourth, it would justify Mike London staying. We've seen both highs and lows this year, but ending the season on a high note is critical as a springboard into 2015.

I might not necessarily agree with the coaching decision, but it's time to put that aside. This is our team, and they need our support. Not just for Friday, but also for next season.

You can't play good ball when your confidence has been shot. The guys need to know we're behind them.

If we're on the trajectory for a four win season next year, then we can start talking again. But no Twitter chatter is going to make any difference until that point.

I, for one, am done. I hope you do the same.

Mike London is our coach for 2015. Let's give him and the players the support they need as we head to Blacksburg, (hopefully a bowl game), and into next season.

Change is needed in Charlottesville. Let's make it happen this Friday.

UVa Basketball: To 5-0 we go

As I'm sitting here watching Gill dominate the paint as we finish the first half on a 12-0 run, I feel like it might be a good time to address what I've seen from this team so far.

First off, we seem more physical than we were a year ago. Now, this could be due to several factors, namely the weak competition we've faced so far. However, remember Bennett talking about how great our strength and conditioning coach is? I'd like to think we're actually stronger and faster than a year ago.

On another positive note, how about Justin Anderson? Man, has he played some good ball.

He's calm and -- generally speaking -- choosing his shot well. We know he has the ability to drive, but his shot has been and will continue to open things up for our offense. He's reportedly lost about 20 pounds too, so his fitness should certainly be better than it was a year ago.

I also want to give a shoutout to the first-years, specifically Marial Shayok and Isaiah Wilkins.

I'm still very unsure of what our rotation will look like in a couple weeks, but for the past few games, Shayok has been the first off the bench. His athleticism is obvious, and I've been impressed with his shot so far. He's definitely starting to get on a roll.

Meanwhile, you can see the potential with Wilkins. Before tonight, he was second on the team in blocks with 6. To put that in perspective, Darion Atkins leads the team with 7 in essentially double the minutes. Wilkins hustles up and down the court, and he always seems to be in the right place at the right time, at least defensively. And for Bennett, that'll get you some playing time.

Still though, these first 4 games have not presented mistake free basketball. No, it doesn't really matter in the game's outcome -- what's the difference between a 20 and 25 point win? But there are definitely some areas we need to clean up.

Primarily, especially against George Washington, we committed far too many turnovers. Part of that was the zone and just not being comfortable against it, but those mistakes can't continue against Maryland and VCU next week, especially on the road.

On a different note, there's really only one thing that concerns me about this team -- its lack of a pure shooter. Last year, obviously, that guy was Joe Harris. Even when he was having an off game, teams still had to respect him as a deep threat.

This season, we don't really have that go to guy. Malcolm, Perrantes, Anderson, Nolte, Shayok, and even Hall can make a 3 here and there, but none of them are really known for just getting on a hot streak.

Maybe it won't make a difference. Maybe this team is more about driving than shooting. Maybe the ability of Perrantes/Anderson/whoever to hit one here and there is sufficient.

But I keep going back to the UNC game last year where Harris scored like our first 9 points, all from bonusphere. I thought maybe Hall could step up into that role, but after not even seeing the court on Friday, I certainly have my doubts.

Like I said, maybe we've improved enough to where we don't need that go to guy from deep. But come tournament time, he'd obviously help.

Regardless, we definitely have ourselves a good squad, although I still haven't figured out the rotation. Toby, Gill, and Atkins work the 4 and 5 positions, but will Wilkins carve out a role?

How about the backcourt? Who will Shayok and Hall spell?

And where, if anywhere, does Nolte fit in?

This group isn't as easy to figure out as in years past just because each guy has a different skill set, and we still don't know how well they complement those of others.

There are still a lot of questions. But these questions are what separate us from a sweet-16 team and a final-4 type of team.

Worst case-scenario, we finish fourth or fifth in the ACC. When you think about it, that's still pretty damn exciting.

No doubt, this group has the talent that combined with Bennett's genius, can take us deep into March.

NOTE: I probably won't have much time for very detailed posts about basketball until mid-December, but be sure to follow along on Twitter for more HOOps insight!

And as always, Go Hoos!

HOOPS IS HERE!

With the football team tanking, I think we can all agree basketball season couldn't come soon enough. And -- thankfully -- here we are.

No, this matchup doesn't elicit national excitement. Hell, it's not even televised. But after last season's run, I've never seen a fan base so fired up about an away game against a pretty bad opponent.

Tony Bennett has us believing again in Charlottesville.

And rightfully so. Combined with Bennett's genius, our guys can compete with almost anyone.

One thing I want to point out though, is that the pack-line works because of the selflessness of the guys we have. It's hard to recruit high school studs and tell them they'll probably never average more that 12 or so points per game, at the very best.

But Bennett has found those guys. Joe Harris, for example, could have scored 20-25 a game at most schools, but here he barely eclipsed 10 last season. But Harris is just one of many examples. Aside from Darion Atkins's ill-timed comments last postseason, this was the most cohesive team I have seen.

Ever. In any sport.

That's what made the Syracuse game so special. To see these guys reach the top in front of a crowd that wanted nothing more to see the basketball powers of old surrender to the solidarity of the Cavaliers, we delivered a dominating, emotional, awe-inspiring performance.

This year seems to have the same makeup.

However, it is important to remember that this will be a different team. Atkins will have to try to replace Mitchell's defense. Can Devon Hall or Justin Anderson provide the same perimeter threat as Harris? Or will Bennett re-tool the offensive attack work Gill and Tobey down in the post more often.

More than likely, we won't know our identity until close to ACC play. Honestly, it wasn't until FSU last season that we really found ours.

So, Cavalier faithful, be patient. I would not be surprised at all to see us drop games to Harvard, Maryland, or VCU.

We're going to need someone to step up like Perrantes did last year. Could it be Hall? Or maybe even one of the first years?

All I can say is, starting tonight, we'll find out.

Quick Expectations for Each Player for 2014-2015

(0) Devon Hall (R-Fr.) -- He's the wild card, in my opinion. Likely to start at point tonight, he has drawn rave reviews from the coaches and teammates alike. He's going to be counted on spelling guys like Perrantes and Brogdon. He seems up to the challenge.

(1) Justin Anderson (Jr.) -- Preferably, I'd rather to continue to see him come off the bench. He doesn't provide as great a perimeter presence as I'd like, but man do I love his energy. The things with guys that hustle like him is that there will always be a role for you.

(5) Darion Atkins (Sr.) -- Like Hall, I'm not sure what his role will be. Is his offensive game consistent enough for him to start? Judging from last season, no. But we will need his physicality, for sure. He's a guy that's got a chance to salvage a largely disappointing career.

(10) Mike Tobey (Jr.) -- He's got to be more consistent. He's got range, he's got height, but he's always lacked energy offensively and his feet are too slow for my preference on defense. He'll likely continue to start at the 5, but look for Atkins to spell him quite often as Mitchell did last season.

(11) Evan Nolte (Jr.) -- Here's a guy that I'm just not high on. Yes, he came on a little bit in the tournament, but from a 4-star guy that rode the bench for 2 seasons, I'm not drinking the kool-aid yet. He's probably too big to be a 3, but not strong or physical enough to be a 4/ a low-post guy. I don't expect him to contribute really any more than he did a year ago.

(13) Anthony Gill (Jr.) -- If you ask me for the biggest key to our success this season, it's #13. Coming off the bench last season, he gave us a physical presence on the boards and a solid 10 points per game. His defensive game has reportedly improved, so he's got the making to be a real stud. Offensively, I think the team goes where he goes. Is he ready to be a full time starter? We'll need to find that our pretty soon.

(15) Malcolm Brogdon (Jr.)-- He'll be the centerpiece of the offense. Dickie V tabbed him as a first-team all-American. I wouldn't go that far, but he's got a complete game -- he can hit the 3, the mid-range jumper, and drive to the hoop. And his defense isn't too shabby either. He and Gill will be focus-points of our offense.

(32) London Perrantes (So.) -- #CaliSwag. Got to love his composure, which earned him a mini-feature on Sports Illustrated. I missed last season's JMU opener, but I knew after VCU he was our point-guard. And sure enough, he was as critical to our success as anyone. I still don't know why he was suspended for the opener, but assuming this was a one-time deal, he'll provide a steady-hand as we forge our identity in the early going.

The Freshmen -- We know at least one of (33) Jack Salt, (4) Marial Shayock, (2) B.J. Stith, and (21) Isaiah Wilkins will redshirt. From reports, Shayock seems to be the only one of the four that isn't in consideration. Each has their strengths and weaknesses, but in a rotation of no more than nine guys, it just makes sense to see maybe even two further develop their game without losing a year of eligibility, especially with key cogs such as Brogdon, Gill, and Tobey leaving in two-seasons. I trust Bennett on this one. 

(NOTE: Tennessee transfer (51) Darius Thomsen, per NCAA rules, will take a redshirt season).

Well there you have it folks. I'm not going to make any game-by-game predictions just because I don't see the point in basketball. Upsets happen. Teams get on hot and cold streaks. Things happen.

But I think we all agree anything less than 4th in the ACC is a disappointing season. This isn't pessimism, just the reality of the expectations Bennett has built.

But that's where you want your program.

Prove everyone right, Bennett. Go Hoos!

State of the Program: UVa Football

So, yeah. I guess it was about time I write something about this utter collapse of the football season -- and one would think Mike London's career.

Listen, the first half of our schedule was tougher than that of most teams. Still, we had two guaranteed wins against Richmond and Kent State. We had another should-win in a night-game against Pittsburgh. And then we got lucky and beat Louisville.

And we made it through at 4-2. Great. But what did that tell us? Not much, unfortunately.

Just like the beginning of last season, the defense was swarming to the ball carrier and forcing turnovers. It was truly a difference-making unit.

But then what happened? We started facing more diverse offenses in the ACC schedule. Outside of BYU (who still had Taysom Hill at the time), every team we played used a pro-style, three receiver offense. That plays to our strengths -- we get Canady in the slot, Mike Moore over with Dean at DT, and then two pretty damn good bookends in Harold and Valles coming after the QB.

And then the ACC schedule hit. We faced the hurry up offense of Duke, the lightning-bolt scoring abilities of UNC, and then the dreaded triple option -- which although it runs basically five plays, our defense consistently looks dazed and confused.

As for the offense, it was never really that good. Sure, we had some receivers come up with jump balls (Gooch, in particular) and then a decent emergence from Severin, but are any of these guys difference makers? There's no outstanding ball-skills, no blazing speed, and now not even really size or leadership with Gooch out.

While doing their best, the o-line just isn't talented enough to deal with constant injuries and open up holes for the backs.

Oh yeah, and regardless of which QB plays, we're basically guaranteed to watch two bad interceptions, at the very least.

So here's my take: it all comes back to the coaching.

Why don't we have talent at o-line or receiver? Poor recruiting.

Why do we see the same type of interceptions every season (anyone else notice how Lambert's pick by the D-lineman against UNC was a mirror image of Rocco's vs. Penn State)? Poor fundamentals, which comes back to poor coaching.

Why is the defense all of a sudden surrendering 30ish points per game? They're not ready or deep enough for these diverse offenses. Poor coaching and poor player development.

I just can't stand the thought of thinking back to the Groh days in the early 2000s anymore. When I say that was the last time we were respectable, that's embarrassing. I'm not proud of that. I mean, the last time we had a consistent winning-tradition, Marques Hagans was still the quarterback.

I don't think there are too many people who still have hope that Mike London can salvage this season.

I'd get it if maybe we were playing close to teams that we're better than us, and we were just short. We had something to build on from week to week.

But that's not how it's been. As we've all grown well too accustomed to, it's quite the opposite. We either outplay the opponent yet still find a way to lose, or we come out with no heart, no focus, and no passion (cough, cough, Georgia Tech).

I don't know how to fix these problems. Is it something the bye-week will solve? I doubt it, especially considering we're 0-3 after our last bye.

Maybe the defense can get their act back together, but while the point totals have been higher, it's not like their play has been terrible. Let's face it -- a couple of UNC's touchdowns were just perfectly executed plays or perfectly timed throws. Hell, the deep UNC touchdown in-front of the student section was one of the pretties throws I've ever seen.

But it comes back to the offense, and in particular, their half-time adjustments (or lack thereof). Unless you're scoring points like Oregon, it's pretty much impossible to win without second-half touchdowns, especially when the other team has made and is executing their adjustments. You can even go back to Louisville and Pitt and see terrible second-half offensive execution.

I don't want to sit here and beat a dead horse -- we know what our problems are. So does the coaching staff. Problem is: they can't fix them.

Coaches are there to improve the players and their execution. Simply put, that hasn't happened.

What the future holds: I don't know. But here's what I do know: if we want a successful, winning program, changes must be made, and they start at the top.

I'm not going to get into possible candidates because I couldn't tell you (although http://wahooze.blogspot.com/ might be able to). But we need big changes -- I'm talking culture changes, not just coaching.

We need a team that gets fans excited so players aren't running out of the tunnel against a ranked team to see the stadium half empty. We need excitement back in Charlottesville.

Just like basketball a few years back, we have the resources to make that happen. So it all comes down to the athletics office making the right decision. Presumably -- to bring in the right new staff.

If they can't make that happen, get ready for another five-years of losing. It's the Virginia way.

*NOTE: To date, just for the record, I've been a perfect 9-0 thus far on my preseason win-loss predictions. But I also have us beating Miami and Va. Tech to get bowl eligible. It wouldn't surprise me if we still beat Tech, despite the curse or why ever the hell we can't beat that damn school, but I did not anticipate Miami being as good as they are. Duke Johnson's speed kills, and I just don't see us containing him (at least to the point where our offense can keep pace).

I'll put us at 5-7 to finish the season, with losses to FSU and Miami, and then a win against Tech.

As always, Go Hoos. And basketball is only days away.