I'll have another

As we wrap up the calendar year, it's time to celebrate another 365 days of getting to cheer for one of the most consistent athletic programs in the country. We placed fourth in the directors cup, won numerous ACC titles, and even two national championships -- one team and one individual.

Just ignore football and softball, and you have yourself a consistent winner in basically every varsity sport. That's tough to do.

Even as we bash Littlepage over football (which we have every right to do), we still must remember the that he has done an exceptional job building winners out of non-revenue sports. And in the 2014 calendar year, we even saw our men's basketball team ascend to among the nation's elite.

So like every other UVa athletics site/blog, I'm going to recap the top-five moments of 2014 Virginia athletics. But here's a twist: this is from a pure excitement standpoint. That means even though Danielle Collins won the women's singles title, it's not going to rank very high, because let's face it, who actually watches women's collegiate tennis?

I'm sure you already have a pretty good idea of what these moments will be, but just take a step back, relax, and enjoy a couple minutes of joy!

Honorable Mentions

Women's swimming ACC title

Swimming and diving 35-year head coach Mark Bernadino and his 27 ACC titles were oddly forced out following the 2012-2013 season. In stepped Augie Busch.

While the men's team was not up to par, failing to win a 7th consecutive ACC title, the women's team was among the best in the nation. They claimed a 7th straight conference title trophy and finished 11th at the NCAA meet. 

Led by talented athletes such as Courtney Bartholomew, Leah Smith, and Laura Simon, look for the women to climb even higher in the national rankings in 2015.

Women's lacrosse final 4

The women's lacrosse team has had a couple up and down years, based on the program's history. The 2014 season appeared to be one of those down years.

But head coach Julie Myers rallied her troops and harnessed the potential the ladies had just in time for the NCAA tournament.

The result? Victories against Princeton and North Carolina before a final four loss to Syracuse. 

Five players were named all-ACC. Midfielder Courtney Swan and defender Morgan Stephens will compete on the US national team for 2014-2015.

Louisville win

Because of our University's unwillingness to adhere to its motto of "Uncompromised Excellence" for our football team, no football moment will eclipse the top 5. Still, this was a pretty fun win.

We lead for much of the way, but nearly pulled another classic Mike London heartbreaker by allowing two fourth quarter scoring drives. But a muffed punt allowed for a late Ian Frye field goal and an eventual Virginia win.

Fans rushed the field, and Mike London professed to his players that this team was "legitimate". As we all know, that declaration was perhaps a little premature. 

The win was our only over a ranked opponent.

 

Canaan Severin Catch

This one is a must include based on sheer individual effort. To put simply, Severin was a nobody coming into the season. But he lost about 20 pounds and became a solid possession receiver from the slot.

This catch was the highlight of his season (and perhaps the team's), earning the No. 2 ranking on Sports Center top 10 plays. It capped a dominant win over Miami.

Men's Lacrosse vs. Loyola

Dom Starsia's squads just haven't been the same since our national title in 2011. In fact, to begin last season, we blew an 8-goal lead against Loyola. It looked all but lost as we trailed by one with 17 ticks remaining.

But then Mick Parks won the ensuing faceoff and Ryan Tucker sent a cannon into the back of the net with .1 seconds remaining. James Pannell went on to score the winner in OT.

Danielle Collins National Title

I said this wouldn't be ranked very high, but it most certainly still deserves credit. Collins took both sets in the championship match, including 11 straight points to rally from a 5-3 deficit in the second set.

The Top 5!

5) Women's Soccer Falls just Short of Championship

Coach Steve Swanson led the women's soccer team to an 23-3 record (9-1 ACC). Unfortunately, all three losses came against Florida State, including the national championship game.

Still, it was another season to remember for Swanson, whose squad outscored its opponents 23-2 in five NCAA tournament matches before the final. Morgan Brian was a Hermann Trophy finalist, while Makenzy Doniak, Danielle Colaprico, and Emily Sonnett earned all-American honors. 

4) UVa Men's Soccer Natty

We hear lots of sports stories about improbable runs. This has to rank among the best of them.

The Cavaliers, with preseason expectations galore, struggled throughout the season and were thrashed early in the ACC tournament.

But coach George Gelnovatch rallied his squad, and behind an impressive defensive effort, led his team to the NCAA championship after a 4-2 PK shootout win against UCLA.

The game incited controversy over Gelnovatch's passive offensive gameplan, but another natty is another natty! And a collective applause in Clemons Library during finals week was pretty neat!

3) Baseball CWS Run

Virginia swept through the NCAA field, defeating Ole Miss and then TCU in 15 innings before facing Vanderbilt in the CWS final. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers fell victim to a horrific third inning in the first game by Nathan Kirby, where he allowed eight runs.

Virginia rallied, but still fell 9-8. After taking the second game 7-2, the Wahoos fell just short in the deciding game three, falling 3-2. 

2) ACC Tournament Title

Some might disagree on the order of the final two, but like I said above, this list is based on excitement. Unfortunately, we had to share Greesboro with several other ACC schools.

Regardless, this tournament win over Duke was a stamp of national credibility. It seemed only us fans and Dicky V were believers before this win. Afterwards, we ended up taking a No. 1 seed and finishing No. 3 in the AP poll.

Oh yeah, and Coach K getting a technical was icing on the cake!

1) Defeating Syracuse for Regular Season ACC Title

This jumps the tournament title because of the JPJ crowd. They were just electric.

Dicky V was in town for the first time in 10+ years and we claimed our first outright ACC regular season championship since 1981. So much for the unbalanced schedule.

The win capped a magical regular season that gave the Cavalier faithful a much needed reprieve from years of irrelevancy on the national stage. And it appears this year's team could follow a similar path.

Happy New Year. And as always, Go Hoos!

Moving on up

The last time I wrote a post, we had just beat Tennessee State, 79-36, to improve to 5-0. I, like everyone, was obviously excited. But I still had some fundamental concerns about this team.

Did we have a shooter that could stretch the floor? Could Justin Anderson keep up his torrid pace? Would London Perrantes regain form? How would the freshmen fit into the rotation?

But after an impressive week knocking off both Maryland and VCU on the road and then a 49-point dismantling of Harvard -- the Ivy league champions that have made the tournament the past several years -- my doubts have essentially been erased.

First off, everyone on the team has improved their shot, making us more diverse and that much more dangerous. I was very concerned about the loss of Joe Harris because he was a guy that could consistently drain jumpers while guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Justin Anderson drove to the hoop.

But this season, it seems that basically anyone playing the 1-3 positions (and even the 4 when Evan Nolte is on the floor) is a threat to shoot. Perrantes, Brogdon, Anderson, Shayok, Hall, and Nolte all have legitimate jumpers that must be respected.

Instead of essentially relying on one guy and then taking contributions where they come like we did a year ago, most of our lineup can knock down an open trifecta. If that's not scary to opposing defenses, it damn well should be.

Specifically, junior G/F Justin Anderson has been the biggest surprise. Perhaps he shouldn't be, given that he played starters' minutes a season ago en route to ACC 6th man of the year. But that was primarily for his dunks and defensive energy consistently coming off the bench.

This new version of Justin is a complete player -- an NBA prospect. He is shooting 60% from beyond the arc while leading us with 15.1 points per game (2 more than Malcolm, who is second on the team). Meanwhile, he still has the capability to guard essentially any position on the court.

The junior is in the top five in Kenpom's player of the year rankings and steadily moving up draft boards. Don't consider it a forgone conclusion that he will be in Charlottesville at this time next year.

Now for Perrantes, who had some early season struggles -- he missed the opener against JMU due to suspension and had some uncharacteristic turnovers early on. But as he nears 100% after recovering from a foot injury, he appears to be back.

While only averaging three points per game and shooting just 26% from deep, he maintains an assist-to-turnover ration of three -- which considering his slow start, is pretty good.

Bennett has said London is more of a rhythm shooter and seems to have found his groove in practice. I'm hoping -- and inclined to believe -- that his form will come as a shooter like it did a year ago when he buried some clutch three's in big-time moments. But even if he doesn't, his CaliSwag has done plenty so far in simply distributing the rock. Any points are an added bonus.

And finally, let me address the rotation. I had absolutely no idea how it would play out. Would Hall sub in for Perrantes and Brogdon? Would Wilkins or Nolte be the first off the bench in the front court? How about who would even start -- Tobey or Atkins? And at what position would Shayok see most of his action.

So far, a lot of these questions are still unanswered. But that has turned out to be for the best.

Last season, we had a pretty set eight-man rotation with the starters -- Perrantes, Brogdon, Harris, Mitchell, and Tobey -- with Anderson, Gill, and Atkins as the primary subs, with a splash of Nolte here and there.

But this year, Bennett has more depth to toy with than he ever has. For that reason, he can adjust the rotation to create the better matchup with our opponent.

For example, Wilkins saw a lot of early season minutes, but played a minimal part in the victory against VCU. The reason? Nolte's experience and ball handling was more of an advantage against the havoc.

Similarly, some games Hall and Shayok split pretty equal minutes, giving them both rest as well as experience. But other games Hall doesn't see the floor. It's not because Hall can't play -- he most certainly can -- but because Shayok's athleticism provides a better matchup.

We have 10 guys that can play and be effective, and like an NFL coach with his inactive list, Bennett is able to manipulate his lineup game-to-game to find the 9 guys that matchup best against the opponent.

And diving even further, this can only help us as ACC and tournament play approach. Not only will guys have to play fewer minutes, but practice will also me more beneficial as they go up against better players. Oh yeah, and only Atkins is a senior. Bennett has built the sustained success he predicted.

Now we have climbed to No. 5 in both major polls, and the Kenpom computer rankings actually have us No. 2 -- only behind Kentucky!

When I look ahead, there are no clear losses. Obviously Duke and Louisville will be tough tests, but there is not a team on the schedule we can't beat. Sure, we'll probably pick up two or three conference losses along the way, but those should be losses that garner excitement and perhaps court storming by the opponent.

As the national pundits are finally realizing, this Virginia program is a legitimate national title contender. It's about time the "boring" stigma go, replaced by the notion of the most well-coached, best defensive team in the country.

As always, Go Hoos!

Hot N Cold

If you're like me, you're still pretty upset over the loss in Blacksburg last night.

Freezing my tail off surrounded by Hokies, there was definitely some jawing, but also some good football conversations. But at the end of the day, a loss is a loss. They had a good night. I did not.

Regardless, we could overanalyze that game and get mirror results of UVa football this past decade. I'm not going to do that.

Instead, I was looking back over some of my preseason previews and predictions this morning and some things caught my eye.

I pride myself on knowing UVa football like the back of my hand. Sometimes I was right, but just as often, I was wrong.

Where I was Right

1. Quin Blanding and Anthony Harris. Not that this was a tough one to figure out, but the duo was about as good as you can ask for. Especially Blanding, who probably only has two more seasons in Charlottesville remaining.
2. Linebackers. Not like this one was hard to decipher either with two seniors in Coley and Romero and a great pass rusher in Valles. Coley was great against the run and as a blitzer, but he was a weak spot in coverage -- he was often subbed out in the nickel package as the season progressed. I'm hoping he gets a shot in the NFL as a two-down linebacker.
3. Solid years by Eli Harold, Mike Moore, and David Dean. These guys were the major reason our run defense was so stout.
4. Tight end. Zach Swanson never stepped up, struggling with drops (he almost dropped his touchdown against Tech) and blocking. Rob Burns was non-existent. This is a huge area of concern for next season.
5. Offensive line shuffle. I didn't pick the right starting five, but I did say we would rotate a bunch of guys and generally struggle. Check.
6. Matt Johns. I technically should split my credit on this one since I did project him as the No. 3 guy, but I did say -- in the practices I attended -- that he did at times look better than Greyson Lambert. He also started several games. For a guy that had never thrown a pass before the UCLA game, I'll give myself a little pat on the back.
7. Preseason predictions. Believe it or not, I picked our first 11 games correctly (see here). Unfortunately, I had us beating Tech. I think we would have all preferred for me to go 12-for-12 here.

Where I was Wrong

1. I was higher on the corners coming into this season. Part of the underachieving performance was thanks to the injury of Nicholson, but Canady struggled in the second half of the season. And with Tim Harris and DreQuan Hoskey, you know you're getting two mediocre corners. I got a little too excited here back in the summer.
2. Andrew Brown -- I projected him as a starter. Not quite. Call it injuries, but he didn't lived up to his Gatorade High School player of the year award. Everyone says the talent is obvious, so hopefully with a full offseason, he can develop into the stud we were hoping for.
3. Returners. I had Dominique Terrell -- not Khalek Shepherd -- returning punts. I also projected Taquan Mizzell to have more return yards than Darius Jennings. I think to all of our surprises, Jennings had 677 kick-return yards with a 27.1 average. Not too shabby. (Smoke had 208 yards at 23.1 yards per pop).
4. Speaking of Mizzell, I expected him to be more explosive. He never really got out into space, and when he did, he read his blocks poorly. Even against Va. Tech on that 54-yard reception, I'm disappointed that the supposedly fastest guy on our team couldn't take it to the house. It cost us four points; it could have been the difference.
5. Wide Receiver. I doubt I'm alone on this, but with a combined 9 catches for 78 yards coming into the season, I did not expect neither Gooch nor Severin to emerge. Gooch provided a big target on the outside and in the redzone, while Severin -- about 20 pounds lighter -- proved his value from the slot. I also thought Kyle Dockins and Keeon Johnson would have breakout-type of years. I guess I picked the wrong duo.

All and all, not too bad. I just wish it would have translated to more than five wins.

Still, as always, Go Hoos. On to next year. (Maybe sixth time is the charm for London!)

It's time to back London

Let me address what's on everyone's minds -- Mike London's retention by athletic director Craig Littlepage.

As I made quite clear to my followers after the UNC loss, I was all in for firing London. About a month later, that still hasn't really changed.

I don't care that we've been competitive in basically every game (except Georgia Tech) because if we're competitive, then we should be winning. Fans are tired of losing shit.

Just look at the attendance figures. We averaged less than 40,000 fans at home games for the first time since 1994. NEWSFLASH: we only had ~45,000 seats in 1994.

Hell, even against Miami -- a game we thoroughly dominated, let me add -- we saw classic London mistakes. Settling for three field goals within the opponent's 10-yard line. Nearly a 12-men on the field penalty. Forgive me for sounding repetitive, but these are mistakes that just can't be made year after year. Not at a DI, power-five conference program that shells out the money we do.

However, I can't really argue with the logic by Littlepage and co. They were looking for one thing this season -- progress. In their eyes -- and after a lowly two win season, in most's eyes -- no one will argue that we progressed.

They looked at the schedule. As a post on Streaking the Lawn said, we might have been bowl eligible in October with Duke's schedule.

They looked at the recruiting. New coaches, especially from out of state, take a while to forge relationships with the instate guys. Keeping London eliminates this problem.

And they also looked at the UVa culture. As a student at the University, I can tell you we've had about as bad of a semester as you can. Between Hannah Graham's kidnapping and murder, the horrifyingly disturbing Rolling Stone article, and two additional suicides, many -- both students and the administration -- are struggling to cope with the continuous inflow of tragedies. And keeping a high character, active citizen in London is good for the Charlottesville community.

I tweeted earlier that I was disappointed, but not surprised by the decision. This is why.

We're probably in for another year of 5-7 or 6-6 football. Unfortunately, that's just the culture in Charlottesville. I mean, we've got students that don't go to football games and instead "study", go to a cappella concerts, etc., etc.

We just don't get excited over the sport. And with Mike London's track record, that's not changing next season.

But London is a good man, and his team loves him. In fact, I got really excited earlier today when Eli Harold tweeted, "#UVAFANS We do not need the negativity. We are trying to win a ball game."

We often forget that as we fans can rage about the coach on social media, his players are right there to hear it. It's like back in grade school when someone is talking bad about your parents right in front of you. It gets you pissed. And for Eli, that analogy is actually pretty close: after losing both parents, he chose UVa because he felt London could be the father figure he never had.

The administration backs him. The players back him. Now it's our turn.

Friday night could be the tide-turning win we need to claim the title as the best program in the state of Virginia.

First, we would end Tech's second-longest active FBS bowl streak at 21 games.

Second, we would beat Tech and actually be able to say objectively that we are a better team.

Third, we would go bowling, not only getting our fan base excited but also giving our guys an extra three weeks of practice.

Fourth, it would justify Mike London staying. We've seen both highs and lows this year, but ending the season on a high note is critical as a springboard into 2015.

I might not necessarily agree with the coaching decision, but it's time to put that aside. This is our team, and they need our support. Not just for Friday, but also for next season.

You can't play good ball when your confidence has been shot. The guys need to know we're behind them.

If we're on the trajectory for a four win season next year, then we can start talking again. But no Twitter chatter is going to make any difference until that point.

I, for one, am done. I hope you do the same.

Mike London is our coach for 2015. Let's give him and the players the support they need as we head to Blacksburg, (hopefully a bowl game), and into next season.

Change is needed in Charlottesville. Let's make it happen this Friday.

UVa Basketball: To 5-0 we go

As I'm sitting here watching Gill dominate the paint as we finish the first half on a 12-0 run, I feel like it might be a good time to address what I've seen from this team so far.

First off, we seem more physical than we were a year ago. Now, this could be due to several factors, namely the weak competition we've faced so far. However, remember Bennett talking about how great our strength and conditioning coach is? I'd like to think we're actually stronger and faster than a year ago.

On another positive note, how about Justin Anderson? Man, has he played some good ball.

He's calm and -- generally speaking -- choosing his shot well. We know he has the ability to drive, but his shot has been and will continue to open things up for our offense. He's reportedly lost about 20 pounds too, so his fitness should certainly be better than it was a year ago.

I also want to give a shoutout to the first-years, specifically Marial Shayok and Isaiah Wilkins.

I'm still very unsure of what our rotation will look like in a couple weeks, but for the past few games, Shayok has been the first off the bench. His athleticism is obvious, and I've been impressed with his shot so far. He's definitely starting to get on a roll.

Meanwhile, you can see the potential with Wilkins. Before tonight, he was second on the team in blocks with 6. To put that in perspective, Darion Atkins leads the team with 7 in essentially double the minutes. Wilkins hustles up and down the court, and he always seems to be in the right place at the right time, at least defensively. And for Bennett, that'll get you some playing time.

Still though, these first 4 games have not presented mistake free basketball. No, it doesn't really matter in the game's outcome -- what's the difference between a 20 and 25 point win? But there are definitely some areas we need to clean up.

Primarily, especially against George Washington, we committed far too many turnovers. Part of that was the zone and just not being comfortable against it, but those mistakes can't continue against Maryland and VCU next week, especially on the road.

On a different note, there's really only one thing that concerns me about this team -- its lack of a pure shooter. Last year, obviously, that guy was Joe Harris. Even when he was having an off game, teams still had to respect him as a deep threat.

This season, we don't really have that go to guy. Malcolm, Perrantes, Anderson, Nolte, Shayok, and even Hall can make a 3 here and there, but none of them are really known for just getting on a hot streak.

Maybe it won't make a difference. Maybe this team is more about driving than shooting. Maybe the ability of Perrantes/Anderson/whoever to hit one here and there is sufficient.

But I keep going back to the UNC game last year where Harris scored like our first 9 points, all from bonusphere. I thought maybe Hall could step up into that role, but after not even seeing the court on Friday, I certainly have my doubts.

Like I said, maybe we've improved enough to where we don't need that go to guy from deep. But come tournament time, he'd obviously help.

Regardless, we definitely have ourselves a good squad, although I still haven't figured out the rotation. Toby, Gill, and Atkins work the 4 and 5 positions, but will Wilkins carve out a role?

How about the backcourt? Who will Shayok and Hall spell?

And where, if anywhere, does Nolte fit in?

This group isn't as easy to figure out as in years past just because each guy has a different skill set, and we still don't know how well they complement those of others.

There are still a lot of questions. But these questions are what separate us from a sweet-16 team and a final-4 type of team.

Worst case-scenario, we finish fourth or fifth in the ACC. When you think about it, that's still pretty damn exciting.

No doubt, this group has the talent that combined with Bennett's genius, can take us deep into March.

NOTE: I probably won't have much time for very detailed posts about basketball until mid-December, but be sure to follow along on Twitter for more HOOps insight!

And as always, Go Hoos!

HOOPS IS HERE!

With the football team tanking, I think we can all agree basketball season couldn't come soon enough. And -- thankfully -- here we are.

No, this matchup doesn't elicit national excitement. Hell, it's not even televised. But after last season's run, I've never seen a fan base so fired up about an away game against a pretty bad opponent.

Tony Bennett has us believing again in Charlottesville.

And rightfully so. Combined with Bennett's genius, our guys can compete with almost anyone.

One thing I want to point out though, is that the pack-line works because of the selflessness of the guys we have. It's hard to recruit high school studs and tell them they'll probably never average more that 12 or so points per game, at the very best.

But Bennett has found those guys. Joe Harris, for example, could have scored 20-25 a game at most schools, but here he barely eclipsed 10 last season. But Harris is just one of many examples. Aside from Darion Atkins's ill-timed comments last postseason, this was the most cohesive team I have seen.

Ever. In any sport.

That's what made the Syracuse game so special. To see these guys reach the top in front of a crowd that wanted nothing more to see the basketball powers of old surrender to the solidarity of the Cavaliers, we delivered a dominating, emotional, awe-inspiring performance.

This year seems to have the same makeup.

However, it is important to remember that this will be a different team. Atkins will have to try to replace Mitchell's defense. Can Devon Hall or Justin Anderson provide the same perimeter threat as Harris? Or will Bennett re-tool the offensive attack work Gill and Tobey down in the post more often.

More than likely, we won't know our identity until close to ACC play. Honestly, it wasn't until FSU last season that we really found ours.

So, Cavalier faithful, be patient. I would not be surprised at all to see us drop games to Harvard, Maryland, or VCU.

We're going to need someone to step up like Perrantes did last year. Could it be Hall? Or maybe even one of the first years?

All I can say is, starting tonight, we'll find out.

Quick Expectations for Each Player for 2014-2015

(0) Devon Hall (R-Fr.) -- He's the wild card, in my opinion. Likely to start at point tonight, he has drawn rave reviews from the coaches and teammates alike. He's going to be counted on spelling guys like Perrantes and Brogdon. He seems up to the challenge.

(1) Justin Anderson (Jr.) -- Preferably, I'd rather to continue to see him come off the bench. He doesn't provide as great a perimeter presence as I'd like, but man do I love his energy. The things with guys that hustle like him is that there will always be a role for you.

(5) Darion Atkins (Sr.) -- Like Hall, I'm not sure what his role will be. Is his offensive game consistent enough for him to start? Judging from last season, no. But we will need his physicality, for sure. He's a guy that's got a chance to salvage a largely disappointing career.

(10) Mike Tobey (Jr.) -- He's got to be more consistent. He's got range, he's got height, but he's always lacked energy offensively and his feet are too slow for my preference on defense. He'll likely continue to start at the 5, but look for Atkins to spell him quite often as Mitchell did last season.

(11) Evan Nolte (Jr.) -- Here's a guy that I'm just not high on. Yes, he came on a little bit in the tournament, but from a 4-star guy that rode the bench for 2 seasons, I'm not drinking the kool-aid yet. He's probably too big to be a 3, but not strong or physical enough to be a 4/ a low-post guy. I don't expect him to contribute really any more than he did a year ago.

(13) Anthony Gill (Jr.) -- If you ask me for the biggest key to our success this season, it's #13. Coming off the bench last season, he gave us a physical presence on the boards and a solid 10 points per game. His defensive game has reportedly improved, so he's got the making to be a real stud. Offensively, I think the team goes where he goes. Is he ready to be a full time starter? We'll need to find that our pretty soon.

(15) Malcolm Brogdon (Jr.)-- He'll be the centerpiece of the offense. Dickie V tabbed him as a first-team all-American. I wouldn't go that far, but he's got a complete game -- he can hit the 3, the mid-range jumper, and drive to the hoop. And his defense isn't too shabby either. He and Gill will be focus-points of our offense.

(32) London Perrantes (So.) -- #CaliSwag. Got to love his composure, which earned him a mini-feature on Sports Illustrated. I missed last season's JMU opener, but I knew after VCU he was our point-guard. And sure enough, he was as critical to our success as anyone. I still don't know why he was suspended for the opener, but assuming this was a one-time deal, he'll provide a steady-hand as we forge our identity in the early going.

The Freshmen -- We know at least one of (33) Jack Salt, (4) Marial Shayock, (2) B.J. Stith, and (21) Isaiah Wilkins will redshirt. From reports, Shayock seems to be the only one of the four that isn't in consideration. Each has their strengths and weaknesses, but in a rotation of no more than nine guys, it just makes sense to see maybe even two further develop their game without losing a year of eligibility, especially with key cogs such as Brogdon, Gill, and Tobey leaving in two-seasons. I trust Bennett on this one. 

(NOTE: Tennessee transfer (51) Darius Thomsen, per NCAA rules, will take a redshirt season).

Well there you have it folks. I'm not going to make any game-by-game predictions just because I don't see the point in basketball. Upsets happen. Teams get on hot and cold streaks. Things happen.

But I think we all agree anything less than 4th in the ACC is a disappointing season. This isn't pessimism, just the reality of the expectations Bennett has built.

But that's where you want your program.

Prove everyone right, Bennett. Go Hoos!

State of the Program: UVa Football

So, yeah. I guess it was about time I write something about this utter collapse of the football season -- and one would think Mike London's career.

Listen, the first half of our schedule was tougher than that of most teams. Still, we had two guaranteed wins against Richmond and Kent State. We had another should-win in a night-game against Pittsburgh. And then we got lucky and beat Louisville.

And we made it through at 4-2. Great. But what did that tell us? Not much, unfortunately.

Just like the beginning of last season, the defense was swarming to the ball carrier and forcing turnovers. It was truly a difference-making unit.

But then what happened? We started facing more diverse offenses in the ACC schedule. Outside of BYU (who still had Taysom Hill at the time), every team we played used a pro-style, three receiver offense. That plays to our strengths -- we get Canady in the slot, Mike Moore over with Dean at DT, and then two pretty damn good bookends in Harold and Valles coming after the QB.

And then the ACC schedule hit. We faced the hurry up offense of Duke, the lightning-bolt scoring abilities of UNC, and then the dreaded triple option -- which although it runs basically five plays, our defense consistently looks dazed and confused.

As for the offense, it was never really that good. Sure, we had some receivers come up with jump balls (Gooch, in particular) and then a decent emergence from Severin, but are any of these guys difference makers? There's no outstanding ball-skills, no blazing speed, and now not even really size or leadership with Gooch out.

While doing their best, the o-line just isn't talented enough to deal with constant injuries and open up holes for the backs.

Oh yeah, and regardless of which QB plays, we're basically guaranteed to watch two bad interceptions, at the very least.

So here's my take: it all comes back to the coaching.

Why don't we have talent at o-line or receiver? Poor recruiting.

Why do we see the same type of interceptions every season (anyone else notice how Lambert's pick by the D-lineman against UNC was a mirror image of Rocco's vs. Penn State)? Poor fundamentals, which comes back to poor coaching.

Why is the defense all of a sudden surrendering 30ish points per game? They're not ready or deep enough for these diverse offenses. Poor coaching and poor player development.

I just can't stand the thought of thinking back to the Groh days in the early 2000s anymore. When I say that was the last time we were respectable, that's embarrassing. I'm not proud of that. I mean, the last time we had a consistent winning-tradition, Marques Hagans was still the quarterback.

I don't think there are too many people who still have hope that Mike London can salvage this season.

I'd get it if maybe we were playing close to teams that we're better than us, and we were just short. We had something to build on from week to week.

But that's not how it's been. As we've all grown well too accustomed to, it's quite the opposite. We either outplay the opponent yet still find a way to lose, or we come out with no heart, no focus, and no passion (cough, cough, Georgia Tech).

I don't know how to fix these problems. Is it something the bye-week will solve? I doubt it, especially considering we're 0-3 after our last bye.

Maybe the defense can get their act back together, but while the point totals have been higher, it's not like their play has been terrible. Let's face it -- a couple of UNC's touchdowns were just perfectly executed plays or perfectly timed throws. Hell, the deep UNC touchdown in-front of the student section was one of the pretties throws I've ever seen.

But it comes back to the offense, and in particular, their half-time adjustments (or lack thereof). Unless you're scoring points like Oregon, it's pretty much impossible to win without second-half touchdowns, especially when the other team has made and is executing their adjustments. You can even go back to Louisville and Pitt and see terrible second-half offensive execution.

I don't want to sit here and beat a dead horse -- we know what our problems are. So does the coaching staff. Problem is: they can't fix them.

Coaches are there to improve the players and their execution. Simply put, that hasn't happened.

What the future holds: I don't know. But here's what I do know: if we want a successful, winning program, changes must be made, and they start at the top.

I'm not going to get into possible candidates because I couldn't tell you (although http://wahooze.blogspot.com/ might be able to). But we need big changes -- I'm talking culture changes, not just coaching.

We need a team that gets fans excited so players aren't running out of the tunnel against a ranked team to see the stadium half empty. We need excitement back in Charlottesville.

Just like basketball a few years back, we have the resources to make that happen. So it all comes down to the athletics office making the right decision. Presumably -- to bring in the right new staff.

If they can't make that happen, get ready for another five-years of losing. It's the Virginia way.

*NOTE: To date, just for the record, I've been a perfect 9-0 thus far on my preseason win-loss predictions. But I also have us beating Miami and Va. Tech to get bowl eligible. It wouldn't surprise me if we still beat Tech, despite the curse or why ever the hell we can't beat that damn school, but I did not anticipate Miami being as good as they are. Duke Johnson's speed kills, and I just don't see us containing him (at least to the point where our offense can keep pace).

I'll put us at 5-7 to finish the season, with losses to FSU and Miami, and then a win against Tech.

As always, Go Hoos. And basketball is only days away.

Interim reports: Football

It seems just like yesterday I was making the trek from the apartment to the UCLA game. Man, does time fly during football season.

It feels good to say that for once, because for the first time since 2011, we look like a respectable program. A good program? That will be determined down the stretch. For now, we'll stick with respectable.

Listen, I picked us to go 4-2 on my preseason predictions. So far, I look pretty good, if I may say so myself.

But with a few changes of fortunes, we could be 6-0. Conversely, we're one muffed punt and a goal line false start penalty by Pitt from being 2-4.

My point: these judgments are tricky. It is easy to get too high right now. Tied for the lead in the Coastal! Go Hoos!

Not so fast.

What we've done so far is admirable, but we have to stay hungry. We've played our hearts out, but we're still no lock to go bowling. Second half collapses happen.

Will we fall into faltering the pit of less than six wins? If I were a betting man, I'd say probably not. But we're not out of the woods yet. I love my team, but let's not give them distractions; let them work and continue to play with a chip on their shoulder. That's the formula for continued success.

So without further ado, here are my grades through six games:

Offense

Through nearly the first two quarters of the season, this unit didn't look much different than it did last season. But then Johns came in and gave us two huge completions -- including the touchdown to Levrone. It's never this simple, but I swear that pass kick started our season.

Three first-half defensive touchdowns by the Bruins were too much to overcome, but we were heading in the right direction. And while it took nearly 30 minutes to get going against Richmond, the offense took off, and hasn't really ever looked back.

Get this stat: through the first six games, we've scored at least 20 points in every contest. We're no Baylor or Oregon, but we're moving the ball, grinding down the defense, and getting points to show for it.

We're light years ahead from last year. I think it's safe to say Watford was really holding this team back. With essentially the same talent from a year ago -- minus two NFL offensive linemen -- we look like a completely different team.

I see two primary reasons for this. 

1) Big wide receivers. Look, speed is good; no, speed is great. But without a quarterback and offensive coordinator who actually prefer to stretch the field, that does us no good. With these big guys (Gooch, Levrone, Severin, Dowling), we're just more physical than opposing defenses -- an identity Mike London has always wanted.

Go up and get it

2) More creative play calling. Maybe it really does take a year for players to get used to an offensive system, because this offense -- from a play calling perspective -- looks nothing like last season's. I love the sweep threat with Smoke and Jennings -- especially since Lambert or Johns could keep it or give the rock to Parks. We're also throwing the balls further downfield. It doesn't always work, but the threat keeps defenses honest and opens up more room for shallow crossing routes.

After the first few games, I really wanted to see Johns take the quarterback job. He just looked like a gunslinger who could get the job done. Now though, I think we're all ready to give the reins back to Lambert. I see Johns as a great backup QB -- who could be needed considering Lambert never moves in the pocket and gets punished -- but that gunslinger mentality isn't always best for the team. I think Lambert -- long term -- gives us the best chance to win.

Grade: B-

Defensive 

Wow. Just thinking about this group gets me giddy.

With Harold and Valles as bookends and Dean and Moore in the middle, the defensive front is a force in the run and passing game.

Then take Henry Coley -- who might be the best pure linebacker in the ACC -- with his team leading 6 sacks and pair him with Daquan Romero -- who might be the most underrated player on this unit -- and you've got yourself a fearsome core of leaders.

That can't feel good.

The secondary -- specifically the corners -- haven't necessarily produced like I had hoped, but much of that is due to Nicholson's injury. Canady is unrivaled in the slot and Phelps is finally playing his natural position, but neither Hoskey nor Tim Harris have been able to hold down that other outside spot.

Still, the safeties have really bailed these guys out. Anthony Harris -- while not as flashy as last season -- is really playing good football. He makes plays when the ball is thrown his way, and he's showing more of a presence at the line of scrimmage (see his sack against Pitt). Meanwhile, Blanding is playing like a seasoned veteran just six games into his career. While he's great in coverage, I don't think any of us expected him to be such a good tackler (he leads the team with 61 -- 10 more than the next Wahoo).

The biggest key to this unit's success has been turnovers. Before Saturday, we were second in the country with 19. And it's not just Harris like last season, either. Eight players have snagged interceptions -- Canady is the only player with more than one. Oh yeah, and we have 10 fumble recoveries. And even better, we have three defensive touchdowns from these turnovers.

Nothing get's me hype like a defensive TD. Like art, it's just beautiful.

This success comes from the pass rush. I never understood the impact pressure on a quarterback could have until the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007 with a largely mediocre team and a pass rush from hell.

And it's not just about the sacks -- it's about hitting the quarterback on every play. That's what we did against Louisville. In a game of evenly matched teams, we won because we eliminated their offense for three quarters by punishing both of their quarterbacks, driving them into the turf every time they dropped back.

As we get into the heart of the ACC schedule, continued success from these guys will become more and more important.

Grade: A-

Special Teams

It's been a mixed bag. The shining star that could light up the darkest night sky has been Ian Frye. He's 12-13 on field goals -- including a 4-4 effort against BYU and about as clutch of a kick as you can make against Louisville -- and leads the team with 58 points.

His partner in crime -- kickoff specialist Dylan Sims -- has 17 touchbacks, but also four kicks out of bounds. I get kicking it into the corner narrows the playing field on the return, but giving an opponent the ball on the 35-yard line is unacceptable.

Smoke and Jennings have been admirable so far (I wanted Jennings to take that one to the house so bad against Richmond!). Still, they've been nothing special the past few games. Still want more from them.

On punt returns, I still say a prayer every time Khalek trots back there. But so far, so good.

Kickoff and punt coverage has been pretty solid, overall. However, giving up big returns can never happen. Just when it seemed we had some momentum against BYU, that kick return for a touchdown killed us. And against Pitt, the big return with just a few minutes remaining could have been devastating.

We're better than last year, but still not where we need to be (except for Frye -- keep doing your thing!).

Grade: B-

Biggest Surprises

• Matt Johns -- I think this one goes without saying. In my preseason previews, I had him projected as the third-string QB. I was impressed with him in spring ball, but with Lambert the starter, I thought London would go with the more experienced Watford as the backup. Welp, I was wrong. He's played big-time minutes and started two games for us. Did not expect that.

Love these uni's. And Johns's gunslinging energy.

• Canaan Severin -- This was a guy that had six career receptions for 46 yards. Through six games, leads the team with 21 catches for 255 yards, with a two-touchdown performance against Louisville. His reported weight loss this offseason has paid dividends.

He bounces off of would-be tacklers

• Miles Gooch -- Like Severin, Gooch simply had not produced through three seasons. With the exception of a three yard touchdown against Miami in 2012, his career could be viewed largely as a disappointment. But with 17 catches so far for 220 yards, he's had himself quite the season. While other guys provide size, Gooch is simply huge. No longer is he a dead giveaway for a run play.

Where has he been the last three seasons?

• Quin Blanding -- We all expected him to be good. But this good this soon? Not me, at least. He's on track for a three-year stint at UVa, if you ask me.

Read that one all the way.

• Mike Moore -- 2.5 sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, and a ferocious block on the Pitt QB after Valles's pick-6. Whether inside or outside, he's always around the ball.

• Henry Coley -- He was always a solid tackler, but now he's a playmaker. A difference maker. A guy defenses plan for accordingly. Perhaps the best linebacker in the ACC, according to several opposing coaches.

Whether it's a QB, RB, or WR, Coley's hits are always punishing.

Biggest Disappointments

• Tight ends/Kyle Dockins -- With McGee's departure, no one expected this group to be anything special. However, this unit has been utterly non-productive. I thought Dockins could fill the McGee role, but with only three catches, his only highlight will run in UCLA's tapes as they returned his fumble for a score. Meanwhile Burns and Swanson have combined for perhaps more dropped passes and false starts than their combined four receptions.
• Andrew Brown and Jamil Kamara -- If I had it my way, both would be redshirting this season. I projected Brown to start in my summer-preview, but injuries have really hampered his development. In the few garbage time snaps he's seen, he just doesn't look disciplined in his gaps. And Kamara -- a four-star get -- has all the talent in the world, but just doesn't really try in practice, so I'm told. That's why Dowling -- a less talented but blue-collar worker -- has taken his snaps. 

Yeah, I couldn't find any in-game pictures of Brown... Not a good sign.

• Smoke -- He hasn't been bad; it's just there is so much room for improvement. He has 21 catches, but for only 99 yards. And he's third on the team in rushing. The frustrating part is he is he's probably too athletic for his own good. He just has terrible vision in space and has trouble reading his blocks. If we could combine his speed with Parks's vision, you'd have yourself one heck of a back.

Reasons for Concern 

• Third Corner -- It might be a blessing in disguise that Nicholson will redshirt and return next season, but man, could we use his help. Rarely do you see a pass completed against Canady or Phelps. It's almost always against Hoskey or Tim Harris. Poor Hoskey tries, but he just isn't physical enough to take on this type of competition. As for Harris, he plays about 15 yards off the line of scrimmage, and always misses the tackle after a button-hook completion. Run that route on him, and it's a guaranteed first down. This is our weakness. 

He could complete our defense

• Fourth Quarter -- We seem to play sound football through the first half, but struggle at the end. Even though we won, both Louisville and Pitt got too close for comfort. Plus, out comeback bid stalled late against UCLA. And the defense tired against BYU. I don't know if we're just wearing down (we rarely sub on defense) or offenses are keying in, but we've struggled to close games, despite what the results say.
• Quarterback -- While it's better than last season, we still don't have a firm grip on the position. Lambert has had his ups (Louisville, BYU) and downs (UCLA). Johns adds a nice little spark, but I doubt he's the long-term answer. Lambert is still the guy moving forward, but he's still inexperienced (I don't want to say young, since he's been in the program for almost four years). I still don't consider this a strength of the team.
• Run Game -- The run game hasn't been awful, but it certainly hasn't reached my preseason expectations. The offensive line just hasn't been opening many big gains. Plus, for the first three or four games of the season, we never ran from under center -- always from the shotgun. That's not exactly conducive to big gains in a power system. Maybe Parks will get on a little role here after the Pitt game. I was hoping Smoke could be the lightning to his thunder, but it's clear Parks is the best back and deserves the most carries. 

Reasons for Excitement 

• Defensive Intensity -- Talk about an Orange Crush defense. This unit is a terror, which makes the games that much more fun. Nothing excites a fan base like a swarming, ravenous front seven.  

Keep on eating, boys.

• Solid Kicker -- Knock on wood, but the last kicker we had that was this automatic was Connor Hughes. He graduated in 2005. I give a ton of credit to Frye for the Louisville win, and he'll likely decide at least one more game before the season ends.

#Clutch

• Offense that has reached the threshold of respectability -- No one will confuse us with any air-raid attack, but so far, they've done what they needed to do. More aggressive play calling plus a competent QB has added a more consistent ability to move the chains.
• First place in Coastal! -- With Duke's defeat of George Tech on Saturday, we now hold sole possession of first place in the coastal. Pretty crazy, huh? If the season ended today, we would play FSU in the ACC championship. Now, let's not get carried away. We're undefeated in conference play, but only 2-0. Duke next weekend will be huge, as with a win, we could take a two game lead on most of the coastal and establish a tie-breaker over Duke, which might come in handy. Honestly, the coastal is wide open. I think it's a race between us, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Duke. So yeah, taking the win over Duke would be a step in the right direction.

Go Hoos!

News and Notes: BYU Game and Non-Revenue Sport Shoutout

If you're reading this, you probably watched the game. We held our own in the first half, but I think it's safe to say the better team won.

Now, that's not to say we can't play with these guys, because we can. After all, we were up at the half despite numerous blown assignments on defense and questionable offensive play-calling. We have the talent to compete with any ACC school that's not FSU.

But as us UVa fans know, being a good team is more than just a talent evaluation. Mental miscues hurt us.

Two personal fouls in one BYU drive. BYU's kick return TD (two guys were out of position in their lanes). The blown coverage in the first half. WE CANNOT MAKE THOSE MISTAKES. EVER!!!

That being said, we showed progress. The defense contained Taysom Hill for much of the game Honestly, against a QB of his caliber, that's all you can really ask for.

Our offense played better than I expected, but we're not where we need to be. At least not yet.

Lambert played well early, but before his injury, the unit had stalled. Johns came in and moved the ball efficiently, for the most part. While I'd be shocked if Lambert doesn't start next week, we still can't ignore the fact that he has yet to "seize the job".

Also, the run game is still very much an issue. We need more production here or our defense will wear, like it did today. I love the passion from guys like Harold, Coley, and Valles, but they're human; they tire.

But there's no need in me recapping the game; a box score can do that. So here are some of the good and the bad from today's game.

Good

• Ian Frye -- Words cannot describe his value to the team. He comes through time and time again. 4/4 today.

• Miles Gooch -- Where has this production been the last three years? He just uses his size to make those tough catches. Finished with 6 catches for 65 yards

• Defensive Front Seven -- these guys played far from a perfect game, but they hustled. They shut down BYU in the first half, and it wasn't until late in the 3rd that they started to cave. With some help from the offense, the score could have been lower.

Bad

• Special Teams -- With the exception of Ian Frye and a good opening return from Darius Jennings, this unit struggled. Khalek Shepherd nearly gave the Cougars the ball in our five-yard line. And the TD return is simply unacceptable. Too much bad offsets the good.

• Offensive Line -- Early on, they looked good. But then they couldn't run block (shocker!). And then they couldn't keep Lambert upright. No surprise, but not a great performance.

• Defensive Secondary -- They had a couple blown assignments. At least one resulted in a touchdown. Can't give teams free chunks of 40+ yards.

• Running Backs -- They just haven't produced like I thought coming into the season. Parks has been solid, but there's just no room between the tackles. Smoke is really the biggest disappointment. He'll make a nice catch here and there, but for a 5-star talent, you want more. (NOTE: Shepherd's TD run was nice; he ran hard today)

• Play Calling -- With 15 seconds left in the half, 3rd and goal from the five, and we run a draw? Does Fairchild ever learn? Why not take a shot to the endzone? I hated that call; need to show some guts (or reasonableness?).
  

Final (Football) Thoughts

We're better than last year. With an easier schedule, I'd say we're going bowling.

But the schedule isn't easy. I've spent too many years buying into preseason hype with this program. I don't care if we're better if we're not winning games. To me, there isn't much of a difference between 2-10 and 5-7. 

With the resources and talent we have, anything less than six wins is unacceptable.

Am I overreacting? Maybe. But I'm tired of hearing people say, "Oh, well that loss wasn't too bad. We played a ranked team pretty close." That's the attitude of a failing program. We deserve more than that. We played UCLA and BYU close, but we could have won both games, and we didn't win either. That stings.

This team could still reach six wins. Through four games, I had them at 2-2 (preseason predictions here). But reaching six wins won't be easy.

Until we actually start winning games, I won't be satisfied.

SOCCER!!!!

My roommates got on me today because my twitter profile says this blog is you're home for "all things UVa sports". Well, I've kind of only focused on football of late. So here are a couple of shout outs to our other programs.

Women's Soccer

We're 8-0, No. 3 in the country (although VT is ranked second...). Obviously a pretty good team. I've only been to a half of a game, so not too many thoughts here. But definitely read the Daily Progress and the Cavalier Daily women's soccer page for some good recaps.

Men's Soccer

We dropped a tough game to Tulsa, but other than that, we're pretty good. We're still lacking some attacking power, but players will come back from injuries. Big game tomorrow against defending national champs Notre Dame. Check it out on ESPNU. And as always, check out the Daily Progress and the Cavalier Daily men's soccer page for more coverage.

Richmond Game Thoughts

Well, 45-13. We did what we were supposed to do against an FCS team -- dominate every phase of the game by letting our superior athletes take control.

Yes, it was a little bit of a slow start, but those things happen. This was Richmond's super bowl, and they played that way to start the game. Their offense -- especially QB Michael Strauss -- was very impressive to start, as they drove down with relative ease to take a 3-0 lead.

And while that made me and most of Wahoo Nation a little nervous, our team responded -- like we were supposed to do. Our players are just that much better.

Anyhoo, here are a couple thoughts on the game...

QB Question Still Unsolved

Coming in, I was really hoping one of either Lambert or Johns would suck while the other shined. I didn't care which. I just wanted a clear cut starter for Louisville.

And, well, that didn't really happen.

For the record, I prefer Johns over Lambert. To me, it seems clear that Lambert has the higher ceiling of the two. He definitely has a stronger arm along with a more sturdy frame.

But Johns just handles adversity in the pocket better. Lambert rarely steps into his throws. His arm is strong enough that it's just not always necessary. But if Lambert wants to actually throw the ball down field -- and not become captain check-down like Watford last year -- he'll need to step up and stand taller in the pocket.

Johns is no physical freak, but he just seems more comfortable. That translates to him being able to take shots down field and keep plays alive.

For example, Johns' patience allowed us to score that first touchdown. I don't think Lambert makes that throw -- he would just panic too much.

But at the same time, I'm not sure Johns makes the second touchdown throw to Severin. That was just a hell of a throw by Lambert while on the move.

Lambert was 13-15 for 102 yards, while Johns was 4-7 for 65 yards and an interception. Both had a touchdown.

Ultimately, I just feel Johns provides a spark that Lambert doesn't. I think he's our best chance to win now.

Run Game Sucks

I hope y'all have noticed this -- we haven't taken a snap from center all year. We're always in the shotgun.

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning for this move. Is it to hide deficiencies in our offensive line? Are our quarterbacks just that much more comfortable in the shotgun?

Whatever the reason, it comes with a consequence -- our run game blows. Draw plays are meant to catch the defense off guard. They're not supposed to be used every play. It's just pathetic.

We've got one of the best RB groups in the ACC, and we won't hit more than 150 yards per game at this rate.

Pass Rush is Really Good

Not much more needs to be said -- between Harold, Valles, Dean, and Moore, we have a legitimate front 4. Then add is great linebackers in Coley and Romero, and you've got yourself one of the best front sevens in the ACC.

That is all.

Playmakers at Wide Receiver

London has always brought in good athletes. But last season, there was no production.

I just thought our WR core sucked, but now I'm thinking that it was Watford that was holding them back. 

We're rotating in like 8 guys, but we're getting production. New(ish) guys like Levrone and Severin have really stepped up. And old guys like Jennings (don't forget about his kick retruns) have produced.

Plus, I really like Doni Dowling as a possession receiver. He'll only improve.

These guys are really underrated, and regardless of the QB, we'll get some production.

NOTE: I'm really surprised that Keeon Johnson hasn't seen more time. He flashed promise last season, and he seemed to be the stud during training camp. I have no answers there -- I'm just surprised he's not playing.

Blanding Will Be Really Good

I'm not just talking about his pick (which was a great play) or his near pick (that he probably had if Canady didn't hit him).

No, he's just a real physical player that's in the right place at the right time. He shows no fear in the box. And in coverage, he can lay some wood.

I'm excited about his prospects.

Andrew Brown Has A Long Way To Go

He barely saw the field, but his snaps weren't pretty. In the fourth quarter, Richmond would run to his side, and he would just get up field too quickly without keeping contain. The runs resulted in a couple long gains.

That said, he no doubt has the skills to be a starter sooner rather than later. But I was expecting him to be an instant starter -- that won't be the case. Maybe a little later in the season, but not anytime in the next few games.

NOTE: I love how Brown sprints from the sideline to the field and then from the field to the sideline. It shows his intensity and hustle. I wish more players did this.

Conclusion

Basically, the defense has been really good while the offense has been pretty bad.

The defense will keep us in most games. But if we want to win some games, we need two things to happen:

1) Pick a Quarterback -- Like I said, I prefer Johns. But it's not like Lambert has been awful either. Whichever guy we choose, we need to choose soon. I'm sorry, but we're not beating Louisville (or most teams) with a QB rotation.

2) Switch up the run game -- It seems like we have two run plays: a draw up the gut, and a draw up the gut with a pulling guard. And neither works. Sophomore QB's will not win us ball games. We need an effective running game. I don't care if we're in the pistol or under center, but we can't keep running draws out of the shotgun.

In the preseason predictions, I have us beating Louisville next week. Honestly, it could happen. We have the talent to do so. It's a matter of can we play a complete game and, most importantly, establish the run.

I feel better about the team than I did when the year began, but we still have a long way to go. We need ONE quarterback and a run game.

I'd be shocked if we reach six wins with the vanilla, two-QB offense we're running now.

UVa football 2014: PREDICTION TIME

Does this really even need an introduction?

We know the team. The talent that could prevail but likely won't. At least that's what history tells us.

Here are my picks.

Saturday, August 30: vs. UCLA

I feel stupid even writing this one. Preseason No. 7 by USA Today. No. 5 by Sports Illustrated. Get ready for another Oregon-like drubbing.

These guys are just too good. We have decent ACC-level talent. They have national-title-contender-level talent.

I expect Brett Hundley to have a field day against us.

Prediction: UCLA 45, Virginia 17

Saturday, September 6: vs. Richmond

This prediction is just as easy as the last one; except this time, the game is clearly in our favor.

Listen, as bad as we were last season, we are still leaps and bounds above FCS programs like Richmond. 

Before the VMI game last season, I would hear some people say, "I don't know, we're pretty bad. VMI could have a shot."

NO! Richmond, unlike VMI, is a respectable FCS program. But they cannot touch ACC football.

Prediction: Virginia 42, Richmond 13

Saturday, September 13: vs. Louisville

I know Teddy Bridgewater is gone. I know Charlie Strong is gone. But Louisville is still a force to reckon with.

New head coach Bobby Petrino is a great football coach (whether be is a great person is a better question). He lead Western Kentucky to a 8-4 record last season after he left with Arkansas.

Furthermore, Louisville still has NFL caliber talent. Look no further than WR DeVante Parker (although he'll miss the game with a foot injury). Also see their defense, which was second in the country in points allowed (12.2!).

But it'll be our third straight home game, while it will be the Cardinals's first on the road. The intangibles will be in our favor.

Plus, the Louisville defense was so good because of their defensive line. But three of last year's starters are now gone, including AAC player of the year Marcus Smith.

Sometimes you lose games you shouldn't lose (we're all too familiar with this one). But sometimes you win games you shouldn't necessarily win. I think this can be one of those wins.

Call me crazy, but we should be hitting our stride three weeks into the season. I think we pull the upset in a low scoring affair.

Prediction: Virginia 20, Louisville 17

Saturday, September 20: at BYU

But as soon as the optimism in predictions began, it ended. I don't like anything about our matchup against BYU.

For the sake of these predictions, let's take history into account. UVa has never performed well the week after pulling an upset. If they were to beat Louisville, there's no way we prevail over BYU.

But even if we isolate this game, I don't like our chances. First off, it's on the road -- across the country. Mike London has only won the opening road game once in his tenure in Charlottesville. That was against Indiana in 2011. And we probably shouldn't even have won that game.

Add in the fact that QB Taysom Hill passed for nearly 3,000 yards last season while also adding over 1,300 on the ground, and you have to be a little frightened. Hill is a preseason Heisman hopeful for a reason.

The Cougar defense will take a step back with the loss of Kyle Van Noy, but not far enough that we can keep up with their offense.

Prediction: BYU 27, Virginia 16

Saturday, September 27: vs. Kent State

I could see some lower level teams giving us some trouble. But not Mid-American Conference foe Kent State. 

The Golden Flashes finished 4-8 last season. Their wins came against Liberty, Western Michigan, Miami (Oh.) and Ohio. 

Now, we certainly cannot overlook Kent State. They only lost to Ball State by three. We lost to them by 21.

But since it's our fourth home game in our first five contests, I still have to give us the edge.

Prediction: Virginia 31, Kent State 20

**Note: If we lose this game, Mike London ought to be fired before he leaves the stadium. It won't be the easiest win, but a loss here is absolutely unacceptable.

Saturday, October 4: vs. Pittsburgh

I'm stuck on this one. I really am.

In one sense, I see Pittsburgh as an extremely young team. Nine of their projected starters are sophomores. Plus they're losing QB Tom Savage and WR Devin Smith on offense and DT Aaron Donald on defense.

But then I see a trap game that Virginia just might lose. Pitt is nothing special, but neither are we. They have had some solid recruiting classes and are certainly a team on the rise.

My biggest concern is their opening schedule. Their first five games before us are against Delaware, Boston College, FIU, Iowa, and Akron. Not exactly the toughest stretch.

I don't know if I should look at this and see a confident team that's hungry for a slightly more legitimate win or a team that's just not ready for more physical competition? Right now, I'm leaning towards the latter.

My brain says to mark us down for a loss. But there's something deep down inside me that's saying (in Lee Corso's voice), "Not so fast!"

Maybe it's just preseason optimism, but I'm going with the Cavaliers!

Prediction: Virginia 17, Pitt 14

Saturday, October 18: at Duke

Remember the days when Duke was an afterthought? When Duke was the equivalent of a Richmond? An easy win?

Those memories are starting to fade away for me too.

I don't know what it is about the Blue Devils, but we just can't figure them out. I thought we finally had them last season, jumping out to a 22-0 lead. 

But then Duke scored 35 unanswered. That's why Scott Stadium is half empty.

Enough complaining, though. As much as I hate to admit it, Duke was actually pretty good last season; a 10-4 record plus an appearance in the ACC Championship game isn't too shabby.

David Cutcliffe -- who trained both Peyton and Eli Manning -- is a remarkable coach. And his spread offense has always given Virginia fits.

While the Blue Devil defense is nothing to call home about, the offense is efficient and can be explosive. The Duke troubles continue.

Prediction: Duke 31, Virginia 24

Saturday, October 25: vs. North Carolina

Again with the spread offenses. We just can't handle them. I don't know why, but if you just spread our defense out and throw the bubble screen, you'll pick up 5-10 yards every time. It's that simple.

That's UNC secret formula to beating Virginia. They've done it now four consecutive years. Let me rephrase that: Mike London has never beat UNC. The last time we beat the Tar Heels in 2009, Al Groh was still patrolling the sidelines.

UNC is No. 23 in the preseason AP poll. After losing five of their first six games to start 2013, they won six of their last seven (only loss to Duke) to finish the season. 

We might be able to attack UNC's 4-2-5 defense with our rushing attack. But against a spread offense, I believe our defense will give up too many points for the young offense to keep pace.

Prediction: North Carolina 34, Virginia 20

Saturday, November 1: at Georgia Tech

If this game was in Charlottesville, I'd be inclined to give us the edge. But it's not. It's in Atlanta, which means I'm picking the Jackets. 

The best way to stop Georgia Tech's triple option is with a dominant defensive line. The Yellow Jackets finished 7-6 last season, and every loss was to a team that was more physical at the line of scrimmage -- Virginia Tech, Miami, BYU, Clemson, Georgia, and Ole Miss.

I think we have the defensive line to really control the Georgia Tech rushing attack. Plus with a year under our belt's in Jon Tenuta's system, I don't think we have the same mental errors that plagued us last season when we fell 35-25.

Still, the game is in Atlanta. And it's a proven fact that this team just doesn't travel well. Especially the offense.

A physical, swarming defense will give us a chance, but I just can't see us winning on the road.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 21, Virginia 16

Saturday, November 8: at Florida State

Just like UCLA in the opener, I question why I even give an explanation.

FSU is ranked No. 1 in every preseason poll out there. They have the physical defense (1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game) and the explosive offense (2nd in scoring offense at 51.6 points per game).

And even though I still make fun of Famous Jameis for snatching a few unpaid-for crab legs, he won the Heisman Trophy for a reason. He was the best player in football.

Let's just try to keep within 50 points.

Prediction: Florida State 54, Virginia 10

Saturday, November 22: vs. Miami

So at this point, we're 4-6. Two wins away from bowl eligibility. But a fifth straight loss would again make this season a disappointment. And it also puts London into about the hottest seat you can imagine.

But if we mak it this far, I think we rally. The players love Mike London, and they will put it all on the line.

It also doesn't hurt that London is 3-1 against Miami. And if you read my observations from last season's 45-26 loss to Miami, hopefully you'll agree that we should have won that game. Miami scored 28 points off of four turnovers. There's you're difference.

I don't understand it, but I'll go with it. Cavs in the upset!

Prediction: Virginia 34, Miami 28

Friday, November 28: at Virginia Tech

So it all comes down to this. Virginia vs. Virginia Tech. The Commonwealth Cup will decide whether we can determine our season successful on two different levels -- bowl eligibility and and beating Tech.

These past two seasons, we've narrowed the gap between the programs. Or rather, Tech has simply gotten worse.

Regardless, we had every opportunity to win in Blacksburg two years ago. And last season's loss was just the product of our anemic offense. Eli Harold and the defense played their hearts out.

If there's a year to beat the Hokies, it's 2014. Tech's defense will be dominant, as usual. But that's about all that is guaranteed for the Hokies as they enter the season.

The quarterback battle is ongoing, which is never a good sign. They lack an elite running back (when Virginia Tech has been good this past decade, they've always had an elite-level running back). And there offensive line is as porous as ours (okay, maybe not that bad, but you get the point).

This isn't the same Tech program that has sent the Hoos from Hooville crying Boo-Hoo for 10 consecutive years. And upsets can happen any weekend -- that's the beauty of college sports.

I say we beat Tech (finally!) and go bowling!

Prediction: Virginia 19, Virginia Tech 13

Tuesday, December 30: Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee

This is as good of a guess as I can give. If we're at an even 6-6, the Music City Bowl is a likely scenario. And Tennessee is a midlevel SEC team. They'll reach six or seven wins I assume. 

So why not? Close enough for me!

Unfortunately, I just can't pick us against any SEC team. The strength of Virginia in 2014 will be the defensive front seven. And even if we are considered good in the ACC, SEC football is just on a different level. Their offensive line will be able to handle us.

And on offense, our o-line will falter under that SEC speed and athleticism. 

But 6-7 ain't too shabby.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Virginia 14

Final Thoughts...

When I started this post, I did not expect to have us bowl eligible. Even though I made these predictions, I still have a tough time buying them.

Richmond and Kent State should be wins. But other than that, every other pick is an upset. 

Are we really going to start out 4-2 with wins against Louisville and Pitt? Will we really lose four straight before upsetting Miami and Virginia Tech?

Honestly, it doesn't seem likely. Maybe it's just preseason optimism.

Point being: it's tough to find six wins on the schedule. We could just as easily be 3-9 or 2-10. That means London and co. are out.

But what I keep trying remind myself is this: we will be better in 2014. How much remains to be determined. But we will be better.

The defense will be good. It's Tenuta's system, so we'll still give up big plays and hence more points than we'd like. But whether it be with dominance at the line of scrimmage or forcing turnovers, the defense should keep us in most games. At least into the third quarter.

On offense, Lambert will outperform Watford's 2013 season. There's no where to go but up. The running backs are a deep group, and the emergence of some young guys at receiver has me hopeful.

The offensive line is the real question mark. Likely, they won't improve from 2013. But if everyone around them improves, that might be good enough for six wins.

At the end of the day, these picks are what they are -- educated guesses. I feel as if hope might have trumped rational reasoning on a few picks. But what the heck -- it's College Football!!! ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!

And if the season goes like this, I think the Wahoo Faithful will be pleasantly satisfied.