Sunday, October 12, 2014

Interim reports: Football

It seems just like yesterday I was making the trek from the apartment to the UCLA game. Man, does time fly during football season.

It feels good to say that for once, because for the first time since 2011, we look like a respectable program. A good program? That will be determined down the stretch. For now, we'll stick with respectable.

Listen, I picked us to go 4-2 on my preseason predictions. So far, I look pretty good, if I may say so myself.

But with a few changes of fortunes, we could be 6-0. Conversely, we're one muffed punt and a goal line false start penalty by Pitt from being 2-4.

My point: these judgments are tricky. It is easy to get too high right now. Tied for the lead in the Coastal! Go Hoos!

Not so fast.

What we've done so far is admirable, but we have to stay hungry. We've played our hearts out, but we're still no lock to go bowling. Second half collapses happen.

Will we fall into faltering the pit of less than six wins? If I were a betting man, I'd say probably not. But we're not out of the woods yet. I love my team, but let's not give them distractions; let them work and continue to play with a chip on their shoulder. That's the formula for continued success.

So without further ado, here are my grades through six games:

Offense

Through nearly the first two quarters of the season, this unit didn't look much different than it did last season. But then Johns came in and gave us two huge completions -- including the touchdown to Levrone. It's never this simple, but I swear that pass kick started our season.

Three first-half defensive touchdowns by the Bruins were too much to overcome, but we were heading in the right direction. And while it took nearly 30 minutes to get going against Richmond, the offense took off, and hasn't really ever looked back.

Get this stat: through the first six games, we've scored at least 20 points in every contest. We're no Baylor or Oregon, but we're moving the ball, grinding down the defense, and getting points to show for it.

We're light years ahead from last year. I think it's safe to say Watford was really holding this team back. With essentially the same talent from a year ago -- minus two NFL offensive linemen -- we look like a completely different team.

I see two primary reasons for this. 

1) Big wide receivers. Look, speed is good; no, speed is great. But without a quarterback and offensive coordinator who actually prefer to stretch the field, that does us no good. With these big guys (Gooch, Levrone, Severin, Dowling), we're just more physical than opposing defenses -- an identity Mike London has always wanted.

Go up and get it

2) More creative play calling. Maybe it really does take a year for players to get used to an offensive system, because this offense -- from a play calling perspective -- looks nothing like last season's. I love the sweep threat with Smoke and Jennings -- especially since Lambert or Johns could keep it or give the rock to Parks. We're also throwing the balls further downfield. It doesn't always work, but the threat keeps defenses honest and opens up more room for shallow crossing routes.

After the first few games, I really wanted to see Johns take the quarterback job. He just looked like a gunslinger who could get the job done. Now though, I think we're all ready to give the reins back to Lambert. I see Johns as a great backup QB -- who could be needed considering Lambert never moves in the pocket and gets punished -- but that gunslinger mentality isn't always best for the team. I think Lambert -- long term -- gives us the best chance to win.

Grade: B-

Defensive 

Wow. Just thinking about this group gets me giddy.

With Harold and Valles as bookends and Dean and Moore in the middle, the defensive front is a force in the run and passing game.

Then take Henry Coley -- who might be the best pure linebacker in the ACC -- with his team leading 6 sacks and pair him with Daquan Romero -- who might be the most underrated player on this unit -- and you've got yourself a fearsome core of leaders.

That can't feel good.

The secondary -- specifically the corners -- haven't necessarily produced like I had hoped, but much of that is due to Nicholson's injury. Canady is unrivaled in the slot and Phelps is finally playing his natural position, but neither Hoskey nor Tim Harris have been able to hold down that other outside spot.

Still, the safeties have really bailed these guys out. Anthony Harris -- while not as flashy as last season -- is really playing good football. He makes plays when the ball is thrown his way, and he's showing more of a presence at the line of scrimmage (see his sack against Pitt). Meanwhile, Blanding is playing like a seasoned veteran just six games into his career. While he's great in coverage, I don't think any of us expected him to be such a good tackler (he leads the team with 61 -- 10 more than the next Wahoo).

The biggest key to this unit's success has been turnovers. Before Saturday, we were second in the country with 19. And it's not just Harris like last season, either. Eight players have snagged interceptions -- Canady is the only player with more than one. Oh yeah, and we have 10 fumble recoveries. And even better, we have three defensive touchdowns from these turnovers.

Nothing get's me hype like a defensive TD. Like art, it's just beautiful.

This success comes from the pass rush. I never understood the impact pressure on a quarterback could have until the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007 with a largely mediocre team and a pass rush from hell.

And it's not just about the sacks -- it's about hitting the quarterback on every play. That's what we did against Louisville. In a game of evenly matched teams, we won because we eliminated their offense for three quarters by punishing both of their quarterbacks, driving them into the turf every time they dropped back.

As we get into the heart of the ACC schedule, continued success from these guys will become more and more important.

Grade: A-

Special Teams

It's been a mixed bag. The shining star that could light up the darkest night sky has been Ian Frye. He's 12-13 on field goals -- including a 4-4 effort against BYU and about as clutch of a kick as you can make against Louisville -- and leads the team with 58 points.

His partner in crime -- kickoff specialist Dylan Sims -- has 17 touchbacks, but also four kicks out of bounds. I get kicking it into the corner narrows the playing field on the return, but giving an opponent the ball on the 35-yard line is unacceptable.

Smoke and Jennings have been admirable so far (I wanted Jennings to take that one to the house so bad against Richmond!). Still, they've been nothing special the past few games. Still want more from them.

On punt returns, I still say a prayer every time Khalek trots back there. But so far, so good.

Kickoff and punt coverage has been pretty solid, overall. However, giving up big returns can never happen. Just when it seemed we had some momentum against BYU, that kick return for a touchdown killed us. And against Pitt, the big return with just a few minutes remaining could have been devastating.

We're better than last year, but still not where we need to be (except for Frye -- keep doing your thing!).

Grade: B-

Biggest Surprises

  • Matt Johns -- I think this one goes without saying. In my preseason previews, I had him projected as the third-string QB. I was impressed with him in spring ball, but with Lambert the starter, I thought London would go with the more experienced Watford as the backup. Welp, I was wrong. He's played big-time minutes and started two games for us. Did not expect that.
Love these uni's. And Johns's gunslinging energy.
  • Canaan Severin -- This was a guy that had six career receptions for 46 yards. Through six games, leads the team with 21 catches for 255 yards, with a two-touchdown performance against Louisville. His reported weight loss this offseason has paid dividends.
He bounces off of would-be tacklers
  • Miles Gooch -- Like Severin, Gooch simply had not produced through three seasons. With the exception of a three yard touchdown against Miami in 2012, his career could be viewed largely as a disappointment. But with 17 catches so far for 220 yards, he's had himself quite the season. While other guys provide size, Gooch is simply huge. No longer is he a dead giveaway for a run play.
Where has he been the last three seasons?
  • Quin Blanding -- We all expected him to be good. But this good this soon? Not me, at least. He's on track for a three-year stint at UVa, if you ask me.
Read that one all the way.
  • Mike Moore -- 2.5 sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, and a ferocious block on the Pitt QB after Valles's pick-6. Whether inside or outside, he's always around the ball.

  • Henry Coley -- He was always a solid tackler, but now he's a playmaker. A difference maker. A guy defenses plan for accordingly. Perhaps the best linebacker in the ACC, according to several opposing coaches.
Whether it's a QB, RB, or WR, Coley's hits are always punishing.

Biggest Disappointments

  • Tight ends/Kyle Dockins -- With McGee's departure, no one expected this group to be anything special. However, this unit has been utterly non-productive. I thought Dockins could fill the McGee role, but with only three catches, his only highlight will run in UCLA's tapes as they returned his fumble for a score. Meanwhile Burns and Swanson have combined for perhaps more dropped passes and false starts than their combined four receptions.
  • Andrew Brown and Jamil Kamara -- If I had it my way, both would be redshirting this season. I projected Brown to start in my summer-preview, but injuries have really hampered his development. In the few garbage time snaps he's seen, he just doesn't look disciplined in his gaps. And Kamara -- a four-star get -- has all the talent in the world, but just doesn't really try in practice, so I'm told. That's why Dowling -- a less talented but blue-collar worker -- has taken his snaps. 
Yeah, I couldn't find any in-game pictures of Brown... Not a good sign.
  • Smoke -- He hasn't been bad; it's just there is so much room for improvement. He has 21 catches, but for only 99 yards. And he's third on the team in rushing. The frustrating part is he is he's probably too athletic for his own good. He just has terrible vision in space and has trouble reading his blocks. If we could combine his speed with Parks's vision, you'd have yourself one heck of a back.

Reasons for Concern 

  • Third Corner -- It might be a blessing in disguise that Nicholson will redshirt and return next season, but man, could we use his help. Rarely do you see a pass completed against Canady or Phelps. It's almost always against Hoskey or Tim Harris. Poor Hoskey tries, but he just isn't physical enough to take on this type of competition. As for Harris, he plays about 15 yards off the line of scrimmage, and always misses the tackle after a button-hook completion. Run that route on him, and it's a guaranteed first down. This is our weakness. 
He could complete our defense
  • Fourth Quarter -- We seem to play sound football through the first half, but struggle at the end. Even though we won, both Louisville and Pitt got too close for comfort. Plus, out comeback bid stalled late against UCLA. And the defense tired against BYU. I don't know if we're just wearing down (we rarely sub on defense) or offenses are keying in, but we've struggled to close games, despite what the results say.
  • Quarterback -- While it's better than last season, we still don't have a firm grip on the position. Lambert has had his ups (Louisville, BYU) and downs (UCLA). Johns adds a nice little spark, but I doubt he's the long-term answer. Lambert is still the guy moving forward, but he's still inexperienced (I don't want to say young, since he's been in the program for almost four years). I still don't consider this a strength of the team.
  • Run Game -- The run game hasn't been awful, but it certainly hasn't reached my preseason expectations. The offensive line just hasn't been opening many big gains. Plus, for the first three or four games of the season, we never ran from under center -- always from the shotgun. That's not exactly conducive to big gains in a power system. Maybe Parks will get on a little role here after the Pitt game. I was hoping Smoke could be the lightning to his thunder, but it's clear Parks is the best back and deserves the most carries. 

Reasons for Excitement 

  • Defensive Intensity -- Talk about an Orange Crush defense. This unit is a terror, which makes the games that much more fun. Nothing excites a fan base like a swarming, ravenous front seven.  
Keep on eating, boys.
  • Solid Kicker -- Knock on wood, but the last kicker we had that was this automatic was Connor Hughes. He graduated in 2005. I give a ton of credit to Frye for the Louisville win, and he'll likely decide at least one more game before the season ends.
#Clutch
  • Offense that has reached the threshold of respectability -- No one will confuse us with any air-raid attack, but so far, they've done what they needed to do. More aggressive play calling plus a competent QB has added a more consistent ability to move the chains.
  • First place in Coastal! -- With Duke's defeat of George Tech on Saturday, we now hold sole possession of first place in the coastal. Pretty crazy, huh? If the season ended today, we would play FSU in the ACC championship. Now, let's not get carried away. We're undefeated in conference play, but only 2-0. Duke next weekend will be huge, as with a win, we could take a two game lead on most of the coastal and establish a tie-breaker over Duke, which might come in handy. Honestly, the coastal is wide open. I think it's a race between us, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Duke. So yeah, taking the win over Duke would be a step in the right direction.

Go Hoos!


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