This post is a response to a fan post from June 3 on Streaking the Lawn by John Shepherd. I will emphasize that it was a fan post and thus does not reflect the opinions of the Streaking the Lawn writers.
Shepherd basically calls out Bennett for not landing a big name recruit in the 2014 recruiting class. The class consists of four new first-years - B.J. Stith, Jack Salt, Isaiah Wilkins, and Marial Shayok. I'll also group together redshirt freshman Devon Hall and Tennessee transfer Darius Thompson with the bunch since come 2015, they will all have the same years of eligibility remaining.
What Shepherd points out is that all of these guys are three-star recruits. We haven't had a four star recruit since the rising junior class that consists of four-stars Mike Tobey, Justin Anderson, Malcolm Brogdon, and Evan Nolte. This class (also throw in Anthony Gill, although he was a three-star) will hog the minutes for the next two seasons. But after they depart, who will be left to take the reins? Although these guys don't stack up to the recruiting talent at Duke, Syracuse, or UNC, they helped to carry us to a historic season. Do the two classes behind them have the talent to continue their success? Will Bennett ever recruit a big name, one-and-done type player?
I will respond first to whether or not we can continue to compete in two years with a team filled with three-star recruits. And I will argue yes.
Let's further break down the 2013-2014 team that won the ACC regular season and tournament championship. Brogdon led the team in scoring. The other four-star players from that class finished 4th (Anderson), 6th (Tobey), and 9th (Nolte) in scoring. Obviously a lot more goes into a basketball player than just his scoring numbers (see Anderson's blocks, energy, etc.), but these guys did not carry the team. Anderson was great coming off the bench and was well deserving of his ACC 6th man of the year honor, but there was a reason he did not start - other guys were better. Tobey had one good game for every five bad ones. And Nolte barely saw the court once conference play began (although he showed some potential in the NCAA tournament).
Rather, it was the combination of role players such as Harris, Perrantes, and Mitchell that truly carried this team. Brogdon's play was big and he probably had the best season of anyone on the team, but there is no way in hell he could have carried this team alone.
My point here is that in Bennett's system, we do not, and cannot, rely on one player, no matter how talented, to carry the team. In 2014, a group of mostly three-stars rolled over teams filled with McDonalds All Americans.
A lot of this is about the system - the pack line defense. Defense carries our team, as Bennett said after every big win. Even if we landed a huge recruit who was a big time scorer, he would see very few minutes if he could not play defense. In our system, the better defensive players have more of an impact. This was a huge part of Harris and Mitchell's game. And Tobey was burned early on the defensive end and soon replaced by Gill.
Our team doesn't need big time players to succeed. We got by last season just fine. We need guys who are decent shooters, decent passers, decent drivers, and excellent defenders. That is what this past team had, and what the 2014 class will continue to bring.
This leads into my next point - don't read too much into player ratings, especially here at Virginia. Let me begin by stating the obvious - scouts are not always right. Just because a player is a five-star recruit doesn't mean he is destined to be a NBA star. Similarly, just because a player is a three-star doesn't mean he will never go anywhere. All sorts of things, including injuries and coaching changes, can derail a player's career. At Virginia, we now have coaching continuity for the next several years. That alone should increase our players' performance.
Next let me point out something that doesn't get a lot of attention - scouting services often overlook defense in their ratings. At UVa, the ability to play defense is a must. This is tough to gauge because the majority of college players dominate in high school purely on athleticism. The future DI college athletes are on another level than most other high school basketball players. This makes judging their defense very difficult. Due to their athleticism, they will all look like good defenders on the high school level.
But Bennett and his staff place a priority on defense. Look at Joe Harris. He was a great offensive player but did not bring the same athleticism as other recruits (although this dunk was awesome!). However, he was one of the best defenders on our team. Bennett values this. Recruiting services do not always take such attributes into account because they are easy to overlook at the high school level. So basically, just because a player is a three-star recruit does not mean he cannot develop into a four or five-star type of player in Bennett's system.
Lastly, let me make clear that we were in contention for several big name players this season, namely Devonte Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, and Maryland transfer Seth Allen. We didn't land them, but we had a chance. When was the last time we actually had a chance at a national, big-name recruit? This is the first year I can remember.
We had our chance in a last second push this year, and we will continue to have chances to land big recruits. This alone stuns me. Most one-and-done guys want to go to flashy programs where their talents will be showcased. Virginia is not necessarily that place in the eyes of recruits. But yet they showed interest even though it was clear not much playing time was available in the next two seasons. I consider this alone to be a good sign.
In 2015, we will only have one scholarship to offer (assuming no transfers, which is never a safe assumption). But in 2016, we will have several spots available with immediate playing time. If a top-10 program cannot attract big-name talent in 2016, something is wrong with this world. Like Shepherd concluded, I agree in that we will land a big-name talent in 2016.
But I will add that I do not think it is absolutely necessary to the success of the program. The groundwork has been laid on teamwork on defense and offense, and it worked very, very well this season. To eventually compete for national championships, I think we will need to add some four-star players that thrive in our system (despite a great performance, I thoroughly believe we lost to Michigan State because they simply had more talent across their roster). But to consistently compete in the ACC and make sweet-sixteen runs, Bennett can do just fine with three-star players. He's looking for something that the scouting services don't see. He has proved he can recruit three-stars who can have an immediate impact (Perrantes).
So when it comes down to it, I do think Bennett will eventually land a big recruit. The odds were stacked against us this season as we were making our run after most players had already committed. But I do not think the success of the program depends on us landing five-star recruits. Talent is always good, but Bennett has found talent when the scouting services missed it.
Still, given our new stage in the national spotlight and a full year or two of committed recruiting, we can land a big-time recruit. And even without one, the program will be just fine.
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