Now that we are 82 days away (on Monday) from the season opening kickoff in what will likely be a top-10 opponent in UCLA, it's time to assess each position unit. I will do one unit per week - secondary, linebackers, defensive line, special teams, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive line, and quarterbacks. This will end towards the beginning of August. After that time, I can begin to hear reports from practices and have more detailed, up-to-date posts.
I am beginning with the defense because I feel it should be one of our strengths. Even last year, you could see this group's potential. We had several impressive games. The one that stood out to me was against Pittsburgh. That was the most dominating UVa defensive performance in recent memory. If our offense was anywhere close to mediocre, then we should have beaten Pitt.
I'm not saying the defense was stellar either, though. We gave up 59 points to Oregon, 48 to Ball State, 59 to Clemson, and 45 to both North Carolina and Miami. I was in a Barnes and Noble last week, and I read a scouting report on UVa from an anonymous conference coach in one of those preseason magazines. He actually said that at times, our defense played like that of the '85 Bears. When we didn't, he said, it was often due to a lack of hustle. He specifically called out Eli Harold, saying he seemed to take plays off. This is just one coach's opinion, and I can't say that I have watched game film to verify any of his statements. But I thought it was worth noting the potential this group has. We only lost Jake Snyder (who should be easily replaceable with Mike Moore) and Brent Urban (whose spot should be filled sooner rather than later by freshman Andrew Brown, who is part of the 4th team All-ACC).
Here is a link, from the Daily Progress, of UVa's post spring depth chart for reference as we go through this series of posts.
So now that you have some background, let's get into it.
Safeties
Strong Safety likely starter - Anthony Harris (Sr.)
I think it's fitting that Anthony Harris gets the first analysis in this series of posts because what he did last year was truly incredible. Maybe I overlooked him in 2012, but I noticed nothing special about him that season. Perhaps it just took some time to get adjusted. Or maybe it was Tenuta's more aggressive defense. Whatever it was, something clicked. Big time.
Let's not fool around here - without Harris, we don't beat BYU. Period. End of story. Not just the late game interception, but also the blocked punt. That lighting delayed game was his coming out party. He went on to win All-ACC and All-American honors. He landed a spot on the 1st team All-ACC, he was the leading vote getter for captain, and he will likely be a mid-to-upper round draft selection next spring.
For 2014, another 8-interception season is unlikely. You just don't put up those kind of numbers two years in a row. But he should be a strong force over the middle. He will continue to excel in the box as well. Barring injury, we should feel confident that the strong safety position will be held down by a well-above average starter for next season.
Free Safety likely starter - Quin Blanding (Fr.)
Blanding was the key to Mike London somehow bringing in a very solid recruiting class after a miserable two-win season. Without Blanding, Andrew Brown likely ends up at Tech or Alabama and a few of our 4-stars disappear. But Blanding committed, and should be a day-one starter for the next four years - or maybe just three. At 6-2 and 200 pounds (and he will still add more muscle), he already has a NFL body. If he can adjust to the speed of the college game, leaving after three years is a possibility. We all saw what happened to Chase Minnifield's NFL career by forgoing the draft after his junior season. I'd imagine Blanding won't make that same mistake. Not with his potential.
I know Brandon Phelps is a two-year starter and will likely have an inside edge at the starting spot at the onset of camp, but I just don't see anyway he can hold off Blanding. We saw with Demetrious Nicholson that London isn't afraid to throw a first-year right into the mix in the secondary. Nicholson had his early struggles, but he benefitted by playing alongside Minnifield, just as Blanding will do alongside Harris. Don't expect him to be the next Sean Taylor right out of the gate, but he should be a solid starter this season.
Depth
This is where we will address poor Brandon Phelps. Let's be honest, he was never very good. I saw way too much of him chasing the receivers (as you'll see in the picture) instead on covering them. He was a four-star recruit, but no one could decide on a position. Rivals had him as a safety. Scout had him as a receiver. And London originally slated him at corner. Who knows if maybe he would have been better on offense, but he was nothing special on defense. Blanding has a much higher ceiling, so why start Phelps? It just doesn't make sense. I don't want to hear that he has experience. A consensus five-star on a two-win team should start. Sorry, Brandon. Thankfully though, Phelps has played both strong and free safety, so he can provide very solid depth at both positions.
After Phelps, who knows what we really have. None of the other guys have played any meaningful snaps, so it's not really worth going into too much detail. Former three-star backups Wilfred Wahee and Anthony Cooper provide depth at FS, but they have now been recruited over so it is highly unlikely they ever see any starting snaps.
At SS, Phelps will be the first off the bench, but we really have no true SS other than Harris. First behind him is sophomore Kelvin Rainey (a former three-star recruit). Hopefully Rainey emerges as an eventual replacement for Harris next season, but let's just hope that none of these guys in this "depth" category see much real playing time except on special teams. That being said, we need a SS to emerge in practice so Harris's departure doesn't leave a gaping hole in the secondary next season. With the potential of a new coaching staff coming in, don't expect another strong class in 2015. Someone behind Harris on the depth chart will start in 2015. We need them to be ready.
Cornerbacks
Likely Starters - Maurice Canady (Jr.) and Demetrious Nicholson (Sr.)
Let's start out with the senior, Nicholson. Tra (as his teammates call him) has been a starter since the day he stepped foot on grounds. His first year, the Chick-fil-a bowl year, he was the only starting member of the secondary that wasn't a senior (Minnifield, Corey Mosley, and Rodney McLeod). While I would argue he never really reached his 4-star potential (three career interceptions), he has nonetheless been a valuable member of the secondary. Just look at last season - our defense was a very, very stout unit the first four games of the season. But it took a turn for the worse after Nicholson left the Ball State game with a turf toe injury. He was out for the season, and I saw him on grounds wearing a large walking boot even after the season ended. London said he could have played if the team was fighting for a bowl berth, but I'm not sure I buy that. The point is, we cannot forget how valuable he really is to the defense.
This year, Nicholson will need to have a more impactful role on the team for us to contend for bowl eligibility. He has always done a fine job of locking down his man, and he is a better run defender than people give him credit for. But he needs to make more plays. He has the talent to come up with more interceptions, and if he could steal three or four this season, that would add a huge boost to the defense.
Canady will likely line up opposite Nicholson. Canady came to Virginia as an unheralded two-star recruit by Scout and three-star by Rivals. Point being - not much was to be expected from him. But boy, did he prove us wrong. He took the role as the nickelback his freshman season, and held onto it last year, despite being limited by injury.
The thing that impresses me the most about Canady is his physicality. In a world where everyone is trying to copy the Seattle Seahawks' 'legion of boom' by using large, physical corners, Canady fits the mold. He is listed at 6-2, and uses his size to his advantage. In the box, he is almost like a linebacker as he is more than willing to stick his head in for a tackle. Although he has mostly been limited to the slot, he still uses his long arms to his advantage, often jamming the receiver at the line. Just sit back and watch him for a few plays, and you will come away impressed. He is by far my favorite member of the secondary to watch.
His physicality leads me to another talking point - the fade route. The past two years, Nicholson has been our number-one corner. But reports out of spring camp have Tenuta saying that this year, Canady appears to be the best cover guy. This could be huge because of his size. Nicholson is listed at 5-11, but that appears to be a stretch. We have watched him helplessly try to defend against fade routes and jump balls for three years. If Canady can now match-up against the opponent's number-one receiver, then that play sould become significantly harder. And Nicholson is plenty good enough to cover any team's number-two receiver. Basically, with Nicholson's consistent cover skills and Canady's physicality, we should have a very good set of starting corners.
Likely Nickelback Starter - DreQuan Hoskey (Sr.)
The first time I heard Hoskey's name was against Florida State two seasons ago in the game that it felt like we had to win three different times. On Florida State's final drive, down just 14-13, EJ Manuel threw a beautiful deep ball to the endzone. But little known Hoskey dove and batted it away perfectly, preventing the go ahead score. When I saw that play, I thought that we might have something special here. That wasn't quite the case. He turned into a solid starter, but nothing more and nothing less.
The past two seasons, both of which Hoskey has started, he has played mostly on the outside. But with Canady's emergence, he will likely be moved to the slot. In all honesty, I don't think this is a bad place for him, especially when we go man to man. Hoskey is a speedster (he actually is a hurdler on the track team in the off-season). He should match up well against the smaller, faster receivers. He will not provide quite the presence in the box that Canady did, but who is to say Canady won't see time in the slot anyway. Tenuta is very creative and very aggressive - sometimes to a fault. Don't be surprised to see any member of the secondary lined up in an unusual spot. Tenuta will get creative, and people will move around. With the versatility in this corner group, however, I see no harm in that.
Depth
London's mantra the past few seasons has been to recruit guys that are athletes. This pays a price on the offensive line, which currently has very little depth, but the secondary, especially cornerback, has benefitted. Behind the three starters - who have all earned their place - we have several promising young prospects.
First to mention is sophomore Tim Harris, a former four-star recruit who was pressed into duty way too early last season. He started after Nicholson's injury (from the Maryland game until the end of the season). To be candid, he got burned. Not all of this was his fault though. I remember watching the Clemson game and scratching my head, wondering why Harris was consistently covering Sammy Watkins. Surely Hoskey could have done a better job as Harris got torched. But he gained valuable experience, which should benefit him in the long run. He had his ups and downs for sure, but the fact that several of our defensive minds considered him good enough to start and take on the role that he did should say something about his talent. With essentially a year off in 2014, barring injuries, he should become a solid starter in 2015.
Behind Harris are Kirk Garner (RS Fr.) and Jeff Farrar (Fr.). Both of these guys were three or four-star prospects depending on the scouting service. The bottom line though, is that these guys should be big contributors in 2015. I am thrilled that Garner was redshirted because he has talent, and now has four years to contribute. This season will be about special teams, but Garner could easily become the nickelback in 2015. I am hoping that Farrar gets the benefit of the redshirt as well. It's tough to redshirt such a highly touted player, especially one that came all the way from California. But unless he shines in camp, he will be no higher than the number-four corner. There is no reason he should be forced to play special teams when there are multiple other corners that could do so (see Divante Walker and C.J. Moore, both sophomores). With London, you never know whether or not a player will be redshirted (think LaChaston Smith). But if London is thinking about the future of this program, likely beyond his stint as head coach, then Farrar should be redshirted.
Conclusion
Don't let the Oregon game fool you - this unit was quite good to begin the season. Unfortunately, Nicholson's season ending injury and Canady's and Urban's mid-season injuries took a toll on this unit's production. Tim Harris simply was not ready to play such meaningful action. At safety, I'll always question Phelps' role. He just doesn't seem like a natural fit at free safety.
This season though, the secondary has the potential to take the next step from a good unit to a great unit. Barring injuries (as I have repeated throughout this post), we should not be giving up 400-yard passing days. Except for the game against Florida State, I would say we should be able to hold every opponent under 250-pass yards. We will just be that good. Anthony Harris can tutor the insanely gifted Blanding into a stud, while Phelps provides depth at both positions. The top three corners are a legit group, and some depth is there if necessary (hopefully it isn't!).
Back in Jim Reid's system, I would say this group might hold quarterbacks to under 200-yards through the air. But Tenuta's system will give up big plays. Unless Revis and Sherman are our corners, there will be long passing touchdowns. The difference is this - we should come up with a lot of interceptions. Harris hogged the numbers last season, but assuming he doesn't reach eight again, expect more guys to end the season with two or three interceptions.
Looking into the future, I don't see any succession problems after Nicholson and Hoskey's graduation. With Harris, Garner, and Farrar, we have talent waiting in the wings. That's what recruiting solid athletes will get you. As for SS, after Harris graduates, I'm a little less optimistic. A good safety usually is recruited as a safety out of high school, and there are not many of those on our roster. Currently listed behind Harris are Kelvin Rainey and Malcolm Cook. The jury is still out on these young guns, but one of these guys will likely need to step up in 2015. This will be an area for concern going in 2015. Hopefully with Blanding at free safety though, he can make enough plays that the strong safety's significance will decrease.
But we'll worry about the future when we get there. For now, let's focus on a solid secondary that should keep us in a lot of games. With Tenuta's defense, who knows what will happen. We could go straight man to man on some plays, and in turn give up a lot of long completions. But if any group is up for the challenge, it's this one. Expect big things from these guys in 2014.
Next Week: Linebackers
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