Saturday, June 28, 2014

News/Notes: CWS and NBA Draft

Wow. What a week for Virginia athletics. First off, let me apologize for being MIA this past week, in terms of blog posts. I easily could have come up with three or four posts, but I decided to leave the computer at home while on vacation. My apologies.

I tried to tweet some thoughts/opinions as the week went on, but I personally am not the biggest fan of twitter. Simply put, 140 characters is not enough room for clear and coherent analysis, even over the course of multiple tweets. That's basically why I started this blog in the first place -- I could have just tweeted my thoughts, but nothing beats news/analysis in paragraph form.

Well now that my aside is over, here is basically your update on everything that happened this past week in UVa athletics news:

College World Series

Game 1

There's really no need to go into too much depth on this one -- the third inning killed us. After taking a 2-0 lead, Vandy rallied off nine runs in the top of the 3rd inning. We came back, but the deficit was just too big to overcome. Papi's near homerun would have put us up 10-9, but that park is really big. We can play 'what ifs?' all day, but the bottom line is we lost.

The only subject I want to touch on is coaching. I've heard from many people that our coaching staff (specifically Brian O'Connor) lost us that game by not having anyone ready in the bullpen. This is far from the truth. In reality, Kirby pitched a pretty darn good first two innings. As arguably our best starting pitcher, there was no real reason to think the 3rd-inning onslaught was coming. Therefore, there was no real reason to have anyone in the bullpen ready in the top of the 3rd. You can pull the ol'e Boy Scout saying, "always be prepared", but I would think that most everyone thought we were prepared.



Yes, the third inning killed us. But it was a freak inning. We hadn't given up that many runs in a game all season, so we certainly did not expect to give up that many in a single inning. We were the victims of an unfortunate circumstance (and I will not blame Kirby because ultimately he's still a college athlete -- whether it was nerves or whatever, it doesn't really matter. No win or loss -- in my opinion -- should ever be traced back to one player. There are always other circumstances that could have occurred that could have changed the outcome).

In short, what a waste of a pretty damn good offensive night (we out-hit Vandy 15-6!!!).

Game 2

There's even less detail we need to delve into here. The game was never really in question, as we rolled to a 7-2 win. Lefty Brandon Waddell put the team on his back by throwing his first career 9-inning complete game. We outhit the Commodores 13-5 and seemed to have all the momentum on our side going into the all-or-nothing, end-all-be-all game 3.


Game 3

I think we can all agree we didn't see this coming. We had controlled 17.5 of the 18 innings so far in the series. A freak third inning was the only thing holding us back from hoisting the trophy on Tuesday night. I fully expected not only a win, but a blowout. I had no doubt in my mind that game 1 had lit a fire in us -- we were going to win, and nothing was going to stop us.

Unfortunately, we were envisioning the trophy and celebration a little bit too soon, because regardless of the momentum, Vandy only had to win one game and they too were national champions.

This is why I caution against 'moral victories' a.k.a. we played well enough that we feel okay even though we lost. The bottom line is you either win or you don't (I'm talking about game 1). Yes, maybe at the beginning of the season if we are playing a team that is clearly better than us and we play them close, then maybe we can take something away from that. I had a coach tell me once that late in the season, there is no such thing as a moral victory -- I think game 1 of the CWS qualifies under that statement. So basically even though we played well enough to win game 1 and had to feel good about our momentum, we ultimately still lost. We were still down 1-0. We still needed to win two straight. Moral victories don't add anything to the win column -- only the loss column.


So as we all know, we came up just one run short, falling on Wednesday, 3-2. A Commodore homer in the top of the eighth broke the 2-2 tie and gave them a 3-2 lead. Although we had our chances, we could never cash in. For the first time in the series, we were outhit (7-5). Again, we had a pitcher (Sborz) that struggled early. The difference from game 1 was that we replaced that pitcher early (with Lewicky). Nick Howard closed out the game.

Ultimately, this game came down to missed opportunities. Although it still was not our best defensive effort, the pitching, etc. was good enough to win. I don't care what sport we're talking about, but in big games you have to make big plays if you want to win. We didn't do that this game (or really this series). We were 0-5 with the bases loaded on Wednesday -- that was the difference. The killer was the bottom of the eighth when the bases were loaded with only one out. After just falling behind 3-2, we absolutely had to take advantage there. And we didn't. And Vandy pitched a 1-2-3 ninth inning. 

Despite a poor game and arguably being outplayed, we still could have (should have?) won. Damn, that bites.

Conclusion

I know my tone has been negative thus far throughout this post, but I don't want to take anything away from this team. They worked their tails off to get to the CWS. That's no small feat, and we as fans need to recognize that (the Charlottesville community did so at Davenport on Thursday). 

But we had no business losing this series. I'm not going to act like one player/play/call ended our chances, because that's never the case. We had our chances. Several errors, a terrible inning, 0-5 with the bases loaded in a one-run game, etc. It kills me to even write this. 

The best team doesn't always win. It's that simple.

What pains me the most is that it's so easy to say we'll just get them next year, but that is far, far, far away from a guarantee. It is damn hard to make it to the championship series. And we will lose some guys to the MLB too. While we might have another chance to play for the national championship next season, the odds will be against us. This was our best chance to win a baseball national championship. We in Charlottesville will remember this team, but not like we would have if we won the championship. Outside of Charlottesville, this team was one of too many to count second place teams. 

Losing sucks. We were too damn good to let this one slip away.

NBA Draft

In lighter news, the NBA draft was held on Thursday, and we were well represented by our beloved Joe Harris (check out the video of his celebration here).

Harris said he was projected to go anywhere between 20 and 40. He ended up as the 33rd overall selection, becoming the highest UVa player selected since Roger Mason Jr. was selected 31st overall by the Bulls in 2002. (Mike Scott was selected 43rd in 2012).


Harris has mixed views in the eyes of scouts. Some focus on his lack of athleticism and inability to fit the mold of a prototypical 2 or 3 player. Others love his shooting ability, defensive prowess, and intangibles.

Unfortunately, Harris will be subject to criticism early on in his career because he was a questionable draft-pick for Cleveland. With the first overall pick, Cleveland took Wiggins, who obviously will play over Harris. The problem is that Harris just added more depth to that roster, nothing more in the short term. Cleveland, however, has a hole at center that many fans wanted to address with the Harris pick.

Ultimately, the future of 2nd round picks is always uncertain. Usually only around half of those picks even play their rookie year. Only about 20 make a roster. From that point of view, it seems odd that some of Cleveland was so upset with the Harris pick. Even if they were to address their need in the paint, there was no guarantee that guy would be the solution. So for that reason, I like the Harris selection in the second round for any team. He is a proven shooter and defender. He will never be asked to carry the team, but he will serve well as a role player for almost any NBA squad.

I tweeted this as a side note, but I feel strong enough to point in out again here -- I am very thankful that a statistically worse 2013-2014 season did not prove to hurt Harris's draft stock. He was a borderline first round pick after his junior season where he averaged 16 points per game and shot 42.5% from three. As we all know, he chose to come back to Charlottesville where he was a key player in a historical season. I was scared his dropoff in production would hurt him, but it doesn't seem like it did. Sure, it would have been nice for him to get that first round guaranteed contract, but there was no way of knowing whether he would have gone in the first round last year anyway. Like I said, there is no sense in playing 'what if's'. His decision to stay for his senior season had little to no effect on his draft stock, benefitted the school and program, and won our hearts over. Joe, we will miss you.

Our other NBA hopefull -- Akil Mitchell -- went undrafted Thursday night, but signed with the Houston Rockets soon after the draft. Basically what this means is that he will practice with the team and play on their summer league team. Likely, Mitchell will be subject to at least a year of development in the D-league. While we know of his athleticism and superb defensive ability, you need to score to make it in the NBA. For Mitchell, this may be his biggest struggle. He averaged about 13 points per game his junior season, but like Harris, that number went down his senior season, where Mitchell only averaged about 7 per game.


Mitchell's scoring dropoff was frustrating at times. He was still making his signature dunks and layups, but his outside shooting declined dramatically. The best statistic to show this was his free throw percentage, which dropped from 70% his junior season to 43% his senior season. I have no explanations as to what happened, but NBA teams will want one. This alone is probably the biggest reason why he wasn't drafted. A fringe draft pick needs to make free throws.

If his shooting develops, I could see him on a NBA team in a year or two. His defense is his greatest asset, but that's simply not valued as much in the NBA. Mitchell has no guarantees, so he will have to work for every penny he earns and every second on the court he plays. If he doesn't reach a NBA level, he will have all sorts of options open abroad, where he could become a very, very good international player.

It will take at least a year to determine Mitchell's basketball future, but we are all wishing him the very best of luck. Both he and Harris helped to turn our program into a consistent winner. They will have earned every bit of their future basketball success. May the odds be ever in their favor.

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